India links Russia MoU to NSG support
new delhi — Last week Russia’s Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Rogozin had a meeting with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. One of the important objectives of the meeting from Russian perspective was to sign a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) on the Kudankulam nuclear power plants.
Eight nuclear power plants are located in Kudankulam village in Tirunelveli in southern Tamil Nadu. The power plants are part of joint Russia-India project, in which India would invest $3 billion, most of which would go to Russia. That agreement was signed in 2001, despite villagers’ resistance. But the signing of the MoU kept on the back-burner, reportedly following the Russia failure to strongly support India in its NSG entry bid.
During the signing of the agreement in 2001, one of the tacit understandings was that Russia would help India to become a member of the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) which would make the country’s status as a nuclear power. It would also enable India to access nuclear materials and technology and legalise the conversion of civil nuclear power to defence purposes. The NSG Group is authorised to prevent nuclear proliferation by controlling the export of materials, equipment and technology that can be used to manufacture nuclear weapons. Therefore, gaining membership in the group is important for India in keeping with its status as a rising power.
Pakistan is also trying to enter the NSG group, and is backed by China. Under an agreement on civilian nuclear co-operation signed between China and Pakistan in 1985, Beijing had agreed to help Islamabad in the construction of a nuclear power station at Chashma, which is now referred to as Chashma I. The project underlines Beijing’s intimacy with Islamabad.
Subsequently, China accepted a request from Pakistan for the construction of another nuclear power reactor at Chashma, to be called Chashma II. An agreement was signed under the overall framework of the 1985 framework. Says an expert: “At the time, the Clinton Administration had objected to this on the ground that the NSG restrictions would retroactively apply to Chashma II. Both Beijing and Islamabad rejected the US objection and pointed out that Russia was going ahead with the construction of the two reactors at Kudankulam. They went ahead with the construction and the Clinton Administration did not raise any further objection.” Chashma III and Chashma IV are reportedly under way.
Now with the rift widening between India and China on the one hand, and increasing cooperation between Russia and China on the other, India is not well-positioned to jockey for membership.
Russia’s own future relies on a substantial amount on its relationship with China. Moscow therefore is not actively supporting India’s membership bid into the NSG. Which is why India was reluctant to sign the Kudankulam MoU with Rogozin last week.
In fact, India made it clear that it will stall cooperation with Russia and nuclear materials supplying countries if their backing is not forthcoming. It’s in this context that nuclear plants 5 and 6 are now in an indeterminate status.
A source at Chennai Centre For China Studies asked: “While Switzerland and Mexico have joined the US in supporting India’s bid to become an NSG member, China is still fighting it tooth and nail. What is China afraid of?”
Modi’s team has made it clear to Russia that India expects Russian President Vladimir Putin to work on China. The NSG is not as exclusive as it used to be. The 48-member club includes besides the big powers Denmark, Turkey and Slovakia.
Last week’s meeting was held to prepare the groundwork for Modi’s summit with Putin early next month, according to the Times of India. Moscow is now worried that without the MoU, there will be no real takeaway from the summit which is barely two weeks away.
The Modi government has been surprisingly showing toughness in its foreign policies. Last month it went against China’s explicit wishes and allowed the Dalai Lama to visit Arunachal Pradesh, which according to China is a disputed territory; China also considers the Dalai Lama as an insurgent, fighting for Tibet’s freedom.
Now with Rogozin, the Indian government’s new firmness is fully in evidence. India’s position is that without NSG membership in the next 1-2 years, India would have no option but to go for an indigenous nuclear energy programme. India wants to shift from fossil fuels to nuclear power. The government recently stated in parliament that it expects to raise nuclear power generation capacity to 15,000 MW by 2024 from the 4,780 MW that it was in 2014.
The India government has been particularly hard on Russia because it believes Moscow is the only big power which can leverage Beijing to soften its position on India’s entry.
The MoU was to be signed at the BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India, China) summit in Goa 6 months ago. It did not happen. Halfway into 2017, India continues to hold back despite issues like pricing and technology being no longer issues.
The Modi-Putin summer is just two weeks away. The nuclear energy cooperation between the two countries is one of the cornerstones of the relationship between the two countries.
It remains to be seen if Modi will return with positive Russian commitment to prevail on China.