Merkel’s the right choice as populist forces rise globally

With the position apparently vacated by the US, many view German Chancellor Angela Merkel as the moral political leader of the Western world. Following the victory of her ruling Christian Democratic Union (CDU) in Sunday’s elections, Merkel is now poised to continue as the third longest serving leader of Germany since WWII. But a weak showing by the Social Democratic Party (SPD) could mean long negotiations to form a coalition government. “It is likely that these will be the longest (German) coalition negotiations in history,” says professor Eric Langenbacher, director of the senior honors programme in the department of government at Georgetown University and author of The Merkel Republic: An Appraisal.

“After the 2013 election, the new coalition was in place only by mid-December. It took so long because Merkel first spoke with the Greens. When that didn’t work, she turned to the SPD,” says Langenbacher. “The biggest issue will be the relationship with the liberal FDP (Free Democratic Party) and Greens. In general, it should be remembered that Germany is a kind of ‘consensus democracy’ where competition is less fierce to begin with and the obstacles to cooperation are thus lower.”

Langenbacher notes that Martin Schulz of the SPD “was fighting a losing battle from the very beginning”. “It seems that no one could find the right tactics and strategies to fight Merkel. Anyone the SPD put forth would have been in the same position. It’s not just that the German economy has been in pretty good shape for a decade now. But Merkel is also very adept at taking away issues and out-manoeuvering others,” he says. “Personally, I was always skeptical that Schulz was the right choice. This is someone who has made his career at the European level and who doesn’t really know domestic politics.”

And as Merkel’s party again gets the most votes, Matthias Dilling, lecturer in politics at Pembroke College, University of Oxford does, says the result “does not mean that younger voters in Germany have become more conservative”.

“The CDU has usually performed stronger among older age groups in national elections. Younger voters are usually more likely to support one of the smaller parties rather than CDU or SPD. Overall, the old rule of thumb still seems to hold: Younger voters are more likely to vote for left-leaning, socially progressive parties rather than conservatives,” says Dilling.

Instead, Langenbacher says, Merkel has moved the CDU to the centre and to the left. “I would say that people vote for whatever party does the best job running the economy — and that has been Merkel for a while now,” he says. Yet the showing by Alexander Gauland’s rightwing Alternative for Germany party (AfD) is causing concern. His party took some 13 per cent of the vote nationwide.

He recently said Germany’s WWII soldiers deserve to be honoured like the fallen in other countries. Germans are no doubt aware that Adolf Hitler served as chancellor more than a year longer than Merkel’s current total.

“Everyone is concerned about the AfD,” says professor Langenbacher. “Mainstream politicians do not really know how to combat this very slick operation. Regarding identity and memory issues, Germans should find a way to express healthy national pride. If things don’t change even a little here, the AfD will continue to do well electorally,” he says.

As the AfD joins parliament it is “the first party on the right of the CDU/CSU that has entered the Bundestag since 1957,” says Dilling. “The so-called populist wave in Europe has not receded. Support for these parties is real.”

Another looming issue is immigration. Does the election victory mean Germany will maintain its “benevolent” policy on refugees?

“I’m not sure if people on the left would say Merkel has been particularly

Merkel’s steady approach has meant another decade of prosperity for Germany

benevolent,” says Langenbacher. “Yes, for a year or so, German policy was welcoming and over one million people found refuge there. But the numbers of newcomers dried up after the deals with Turkey (in 2016) and several African countries. That said, it appears that Germany is doing a pretty decent job of integrating those who are choosing to stay. Germany desperately needs immigrants, so Merkel will have to craft a new policy in her next term.”

Dilling adds, “the refugee policy of the Merkel government has combined humanitarian and security aspects and I would say that there is likely to be no major change in this approach”.

Merkel’s steady approach has meant another decade of prosperity for Germany even in the face a global economic crisis that began in 2008, populist fringe movements and current questions about its once-reliable US partner. Raised under a communist government in East Germany, the college physics major has shown her savvy in adapting to a profoundly changing landscape.

Understated she might be, but her words carry international weight. And a calm, sensible hand might be just what is needed globally. Mariella Radaelli and Jon Van Housen are editors at

the Luminosity Italia news agency in Milan