Brexit relief but the hard part is still to come

The Brexit process has been slow and acrimonious, but the terms of divorce settlement for the first round of negotiations between the UK and EU have finally been signed. It is certainly a breakthrough moment — one that has broken the Brexit deadlock and cleared the way for trade talks to begin next year, but the long-drawn process reflects the lack of preparedness on Britain’s part. A quick reading of the 15-page document underlines the fact that the EU negotiators have had an upper hand in the process. It is a harsh reality and a wake-up call for the Theresa May government that has been trying to drive a hard bargain but hasn’t been successful. The EU in the first round has got a better deal in terms of financial commitments and core issues of jurisdiction and Irish border. What comes next is a harder battle. While May had made it clear that Britain is not looking at any of the existing trade models (Canada, Norway, Switzerland), there’s not much hope that her government would be able to get a better deal. An ‘out-of-the-box thinking’ is required, May had said in her speech in September, but no counter proposals are on offer as yet.

The May government is seemingly clueless about the kind of Brexit it is aiming for. Even though the UK government had been parroting that enough research has been done and information collated with ‘excruciating details’, Brexit Minister David Davis last week admitted that no formal sector-by-sector analyses have been done so far. There is no clarity on regulatory alignment with the EU, or immigration policies as well. May’s experiments are little more than a shot in the dark, which is worrisome. Britain won’t be able to waltz through this process as it had expected. It might not be teetering on the edge of an abyss as of now, but going by the way the government is dealing with the divorce proceedings, it seems to be courting failure. It would be in the best interests of all if the May government comes to grips with this reality, and does some real work to avoid a hard landing and causing a ripple effect across the region and beyond.