NDA may fall 15 seats short of majority in LS polls: survey

new delhi — The BJP-led National Democratic Alliance at the Centre may fall nearly 15 seats short of the magic mark of 272 in the 543-seat Lok Sabha, if elections are held now, says the India TV-CNX opinion poll.

According to the survey, conducted between December 15-25 at the fag end of last year in all 543 parliamentary constituencies, the NDA may get 257 seats and the Congress-led UPA (minus SP and BSP) may get 146 seats, far off the magic mark.

The survey was done after the results of assembly polls in five states including Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh where Congress has formed governments. The survey said on Saturday that key to government formation could lie in the hands of ‘others’ who may get 140 seats in a House of 543.

‘Others’ include the Samajwadi Party, BSP, AIADMK, Trinamool Congress, Telangana Rashtra Samithi, Biju Janata Dal, YSR Congress Party, Left Front, PDP of Mehbooba Mufti, AIUDF of Badruddin Ajmal, AIMIM of Asaduddin Owaisi, INLD, Aam Aadmi Party, JVM(P), the AMMK of Tamil Nadu and independent MPs.

The NDA includes the ruling BJP, Shiv Sena, Akali Dal, JD(U), Mizo National Front, Apna Dal, Sikkim Democratic Front, LJP of Ramvilas Paswan, NPP of Meghalaya, INRC of Puducherry, PMK and the NDPP of Nagaland.

An India TV release said that the UPA includes the main opposition the Congress, Rashtriya Janata Dal, DMK, TDP, Sharad Pawar’s NCP,

Devegowda’s JD(S), Ajit Singh’s RLD, National Conference, RSP, JMM, IUML, Kerala Congress (Mani) and the RLSP.

The earlier nationwide survey conducted by India TV-CNX in November, before the assembly polls, had given the NDA a clear majority with 281 seats, the UPA 124, and ‘Others’ 138. Since then there has been a reduction of 24 seats in the NDA and an addition of 22 seats in the UPA, says the survey.

The survey says that NDA could get 37.15 per cent votes, the UPA 29.92 per cent and ‘others’ 32.93

per cent. Within the NDA, the BJP may win 223 seats, Shiv Sena 8, JD(U) 11, Akali Dal 5, LJP 3, PMK 1, NDPP 1, AINRC 1, NPP 1, SDF 1, Apna Dal 1, and the MNF 1.

The survey said that the Congress may win 85 seats (almost double that it won in 2014), DMK 21, Lalu Prasad’s RJD 10, NCP 9, JMM 4, JD(S) 4, RLD 2, RLSP 1, RSP 1, IUML 2, TDP 4, JK National Conference 2, and the Kerala Congress (M) 1.

Among ‘others’, Mamata Banerjee-led Trinamool Congress could get 26 seats, Samajwadi Party 20, Mayawati’s BSP 15, YSR Congress 19, Telangana Rashtra Samithi 16, Biju Janata Dal 13, AIADMK 10, AMMK 4, Left Front 8, Aam Aadmi Party 2, AIUDF 2, PDP 1, JVM (P) 1 and the AIMIM 1.

According to the release, research and survey agency CNX gave 54,300 respondents structured questionnaire across 543 parliamentary constituencies, with an average of 100 respondents in each Lok Sabha constituency. The survey, the release said, covered both residential and business areas, remote and key localities, including upper middle class colonies. It said that the sample respondents came from all walks of life, including cobblers, tailors, barbers, daily wage labourers, small shopkeepers, mechanics, medical practitioners, auto-taxi drivers and real estate dealers. —