What’s behind Imran’s softening stance on corruption?

There’s a reason conspiracy theories do so well in Pakistan. More often than not they turn out to be true, especially when they are about behind-the-scenes machinations to make or break sitting governments. Anybody who has spent the last couple of decades in newsrooms would have seen enough such instances to form a trend. Take the recent PML-N (Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz) and PPP (Pakistan Peoples Party) marriage of convenience as an example. Everybody is used to seeing them want to tear each other’s throat out every time they are on the campaign trail. Yet, once rumours began doing the rounds — about half way through the last electoral cycle — that those who run the show have decided to instal Imran as the next prime minister, even they decided to bury the hatchet till bad times pass.

And, sure enough, Imran’s party suddenly started attracting turncoats from left, right and centre and he waltzed his way to power. Even some of his strongest supporters in the Press were forced to accept that it did seem, especially in the final run up to the election, as if someone was moving pieces on a chessboard.

A decade ago, when strong man General Musharraf was still the president, his tough talk against the PML-N and the PPP didn’t betray, in the slightest, that his boys were busy engineering an agreement with the opposition. Musharraf had introduced a constitutional two-term bar on the office of prime minister, vowing never to let ‘looters and plunderers’ (Benazir Bhutto and Nawaz Sharif) back into office. And since both Bhutto and Sharif were, at that time, former two-time prime ministers, both were simply removed from the political scene.

But rumours that Uncle Sam had just about had it with the strongman and demanded more democracy in Pakistan, turned out truer than the general’s chest thumping. Soon he agreed to the controversial NRO (National Reconciliation Ordinance) that struck off the two-term bar, took back corruption cases, and let everybody start afresh.

This time, as Imran Khan’s government struggles with just about everything after only half a year in office, conspiracy theorists suggest that those who ‘facilitated’ his victory aren’t so impressed anymore. Hence a little pressure, without warning and at the same time, from allies that helped form governments in Punjab, Balochistan as well as the centre. Just a subtle reminder, from somewhere, of the razor thin majority?

And there’s more, of course. Apparently, Nawaz didn’t just go to the hospital because he felt dizzy the other day and ended up with a couple of kidney stones. Just turn on a news channel in the evening and you’ll see the country’s most prominent, and highest paid, analysts wrestling over whose sources gave the latest, juiciest details about a deal between Nawaz and the so-called establishment.

PPP leaders seem to agree. Former opposition leader Khurshid Shah predicted that Nawaz, in light of his health, will get bail in his corruption sentence and proceed to London for treatment.

Trusting the grapevine this time would imply that Imran’s promise, just like Musharraf’s, of keeping the usual “looters and plunderers” away can no longer be taken at face value. The government’s overreach and incompetence has not helped matters. There has been zero legislation so far. And the economy has quickly sunk to worse employment, inflation and growth figures than both PML-N and PPP years. Putting two and two together, especially after digesting prime time and social media conspiracies, the common man can only come to so many conclusions.

But, deal or no deal, Nawaz has become a problem for the government even from jail. He had a quadruple bypass just as the Panama scandal hit the headlines, after all, and one heart surgery before that. And anybody who’s seen his Raiwind estate, or observed his luxurious

Trusting the grapevine this time would imply that Imran’s promise, just like Musharraf’s, of keeping the usual ‘looters and plunderers’ away can no longer be taken at face value.

lifestyle, will tell you that jail would send him to hospital even if he were fighting fit.

Now, God forbid, if the heat, cold and dirt of jail really take a toll on his fragile heart, the PTI government knows it will have a very hard time controlling the fallout. Already PML-N leaders are accusing the PTI of “carelessness” in handling Nawaz, treating him like a convicted murderer instead of a three-time prime minister. Suppose they ease the pressure a little just to keep things from spiralling out of control, with the unintended consequence of fuelling the conspiracy.

Time will tell whether or not Nawaz will get off the hook for the time being. Yet people who voted for Imran, because they were sick and tired of being exploited and believed his promises, are already beginning to wonder. For the moment, they are told all is well. But they have heard all this before.