Modi govt back in game with budget for farmers and poor
An Indian general election is comparable to a marathon. Stamina and the ability to keep a steady pace are no doubt indispensable. However, the final few miles necessitate tactical planning: steady nerves and, above all, reserves of strength for the final dash.
In theory, heightened excitement for the 2019 general election will begin with the election commission triggering the Code of Conduct that, in effect, ties the hands of the elected Government — except, perhaps, in times of war, as happened in 1999. The frenzy will mount with the candidate selection process that also witnesses many political crossovers. And, there is the final round of frenetic campaigning when politicians of all sides muster all their reserves of strength, imagination and acumen.
The starting point of this year’s election was, unquestionably, the Assembly elections of November- December 2018 that led to the BJP losing control of three important state governments in Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan to the Congress. In the post-mortem of the election, the BJP attributed its disappointing results to three factors. First, there was discontent among farmers over the lack of adequately remunerative returns from agriculture. Secondly, there was unease among a section of urban voters over hiccups of the 2016 demonetisation and 2017 introduction of the Goods and Services Tax. Finally, there was a bitter reaction among upper castes over the Centre’s legislation strengthening the SC/ST Prevention of Atrocities Act.
Politically, the BJP’s defeat in the three state Assembly elections coincided with two other significant developments. First, a beleaguered opposition, shaken after its decimation in Uttar Pradesh in 2017 and the small state of Tripura the following year, finally woke up to the realisation that they had to hang together for the sake of survival. Secondly, the cumulative effect of the opposition gang-up and the defeats in the Assembly elections was felt at the level of perception.
The BJP’s fightback started in right earnest with the 10 per cent reservations for the economically disadvantaged among non-reserved castes and communities. At one stroke, the Constitution amendment achieved two things. First, it addressed the feelings of injustice that had been steadily accumulating among upper castes and those middle castes that felt cheated out of both political power and government jobs. Secondly, the new quota policy lowered opposition to special protection for Dalits and tribals.
The Interim Budget of 2019 has to be viewed in this backdrop — as part of the BJP’s attempt to shake off the disappointments of the past six months and regain the political initiative once again.
The government’s principal focus was the farming community that felt short-changed by the lack of remunerative returns from agriculture. Ironically, it was the electrifying effects of Rahul Gandhi’s announcement in Chhattisgarh of dramatically raising the Minimum Support Price of wheat with immediate effect that showed the way. The centre has announced that it will increase the MSP to 1.5 times the cost of production, but there is likely to be a gestation period between announcement and delivery. Secondly, unlike many welfare schemes that suffer from confusion over ownership, the Pradhan Mantri Kisan Samman Nidhi is going to be funded by the Centre. Even if it doesn’t swing votes, it will certainly dilute the visceral anti-Modi message the opposition parties are going to unleash on voters.
The second facet of the Interim Budget that stemmed from political concerns was the targeted wooing of the middle classes. Unlike the Congress that combines an elite leadership with a social base that is made up of the poor and minorities, the BJP’s social centre of gravity has always
The Interim budget of 2019 has to be viewed as part of the bJP’s attempt to shake off the disappointments of the past six months and regain political initiative once again
been the country’s middle classes. After demonetisation — which inconvenienced the middle-class considerably — its rhetoric was outright populist. Finally, it was unrelenting in pursuing tax avoidance, something that unsettled a section of the business community.
In sum, the direct benefits to the middle class from political stability, low inflation and assured, low tax rates were smoked out by a messaging that made it seem the BJP had downgraded its most loyal and steadfast supporters. This budget was the occasion to set those signals right. It was principally targeted at the party’s lower middle-class supporters, those earning Rs1 lakh and below who needed extra cash to accommodate their soaring aspirations for a better life.
After the Interim Budget, the BJP believes it is back to its winning ways. It believes that it has reclaimed the political narrative. The swelling crowds for the Prime Minister, it feels, are indicative of five more years. The challenge is no less formidable, but at this stage of the marathon, the incumbent is brimming with energy and confidence.