China’s exports, imports seen falling again

beijing — China’s trade engine likely remained stuck in reverse in January, with imports and exports expected to fall for the second month in a row, adding to concerns the economy may be at risk of a sharper slowdown.

China is the world’s largest trading nation, and the extent of the declines will be closely watched by international investors and policymakers as anxiety grows over cooling global demand.

Imports are expected to have fallen 10.0 per cent in January from a year earlier, which would be the biggest decline since July 2016, according to the median estimate of 30 economists in a Reuters poll.

10% Drop in China imports in January compared to 2018

That compared with a 7.6 per cent drop in December.

“The weakness of imports suggests we should be alert to the possibility that China’s economy is slowing more abruptly than we had been expecting,” Mark Williams, chief Asia economist at Capital Economics, cautioned.

China’s exports in January also likely contracted, though not as much. Outbound shipments are expected to have fallen 3.2 per cent from a year earlier, compared with the previous month’s 4.4 per cent decline.

A new round of Sino-US talks began in Beijing on Monday as the world’s two largest economies renewed efforts to defuse their bruising trade war.

Negotiators are trying to reach a deal ahead of a March 1 deadline when US tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese imports are scheduled to increase to 25 per cent from 10 per cent.