Russia benefits as Europe’s fragile unity is tested
When the Cold War was in full swing, US and European leaders gathered in Munich in 1963 to strengthen cooperation on security. That first meeting started a tradition that has continued till date with annual gatherings in the capital of Bavaria. It has been a show of mutual trust and unity between Atlantic nation-friends that shared fundamental principles. As the latest Munich Security Conference concluded in mid-February, it was clear the former friendship is in a shambles. European leaders have grown familiar with the new reality. In an introductory note before the conference began, chairman Wolfgang Ischinger admitted, “The whole liberal world order appears to be falling apart.”
“We are experiencing an epochal shift,” he wrote, “an era is ending, and the rough outlines of a new political age are only beginning to emerge.”
Addressing the shift, Angela Merkel, the German chancellor now in the twilight of her career, made what many said was her crowning speech. Speaking without notes, she talked about a world order that is in decline.
Christian Trippe from Germany’s national broadcasters Deutsche Welle said, “In one bold speech she travelled around the globe, from Russia to China to the United States and then back to Germany and Europe.”
“Trade, security, the environment — no political sphere was left out,” said Trippe. Just how far the US and Europe have diverged was illustrated by their representatives. Germany’s views were expressed by their respected veteran, Merkel, while the US sent Vice-President Mike Pence, a former governor of the state of Indiana, and Ivanka Trump, who is perhaps more experienced in fashion branding than geopolitical strategy.
What didn’t happen provided perhaps the most telling atmospherics. When Pence passed along “greetings from the 45th president of the United States of America, President Donald Trump”, a stony, absolute silence followed. The cringe-worthy snub was repeated after he called on European countries to follow Trump’s lead and withdraw from the Iran nuclear deal.
“Pence plugged along with his message, at times sounding like he was carrying out an order,” said Trippe. In all, Pence invoked the name of Trump almost 30 times during the speech.
But more than decorum, the issue at hand are the sharp divisions between Trump and Europe on several security policies, including funding for Nato, the Iran nuclear deal, the withdrawal of US troops in Syria, and plans to downsize America’s role in Afghanistan.
There was no applause for Pence, and besides, there was another noticeable void in Munich. French President Emmanuel Macron cancelled his joint appearance with Merkel after a dispute over the EU’s energy policy, an absence all the more remarkable in light of Macron’s previous speeches about the need for more robust European military might and strategy.
Analysts believe the French are exasperated with Germany because their neighbour to the east is no longer enthusiastic for an ever-greater EU. The Germans see the French as overly nationalistic, dreaming of Franco-German leadership that does not embrace the needs of the rest of EU states.
Well-known dissention is also rife in the American camp, with strong divisions between Trump and the national security establishment. Many senior government officials in the US Department of Defense and Department of State value long-standing relationships with Europe on shared intelligence and common goals. But the Americans and Europeans seem set for at least two more years of mutual distrust. No longer even making a pretense of charming Trump, Europe appears to have reached that moment of clarity that brings acceptance of a new reality even without clear alternatives.
Europeans are no doubt hoping America is only lost temporarily, that elections and cooler heads will soon right the foundering ship. But in the interim other agendas continue to gain ground. In Munich, Yang Jiechi, director of foreign affairs at the Communist Party of China, gave a long speech about “win-win solutions”, a view of multilateralism that seems at odds
The Americans and Europeans seem set for at least two more years of mutual distrust.
with many of China’s moves in recent years. Many see Russia as the biggest beneficiary of growing distrust among Western democracies.
Former Swedish Prime Minister Carl Bildt, who also served as UN special envoy during the most recent Balkans conflicts, said in an analysis that “this year’s Munich Security Conference may well be remembered as a turning point for global geopolitics.”
“The messages coming from Europe and the United States could not have been further apart, implying dim prospects for transatlantic cooperation on managing economic and strategic threats,” said Bildt. “If the worst-case scenario suggested by this year’s gathering comes to pass, we might be heading for open war in the Middle East and a devastating trade war across the Atlantic.
“Or perhaps this year’s conference will have set off the alarm bells needed to prevent the worst from happening,” he said. “The transatlantic relationship is complicated enough as it is. No one should place it at risk of unraveling further.”