‘Election results won’t dictate major policy shift in region’
The US elections are closely watched in the Middle East because of the region’s close ties with America and its involvement in the region’s politics. Ahead of the elections that are set to begin on November 3, UAE-based experts and historians have said that the US policy in the region will not witness a sea change — irrespective of whether Donald Trump returns to power or Joe Biden assumes charge as the next American president.
“This region has dealt with 14 American presidents over the past 70 years. And they know how to handle whoever occupies the White House,” said Dr AbdulKhaleq Abdulla, Professor of Political Science. “It does not matter who wins in this election. Regional governments know they will get what they want in terms of security and stability in the region — especially on how to deal with the difficult neighbour in the north.”
Arab-Israel peace process
Dr Abdulla said that no American president will reverse the peace process that Trump started. “The normalisation pro
cess (with Israel) is here to stay no matter who the president is. Biden will not tamper with it, but only deepen it. It has a logic of its own; a momentum of its own... and it is a game changer. The peace deal is in the best interest of America as well,” said Abdulla.
James Lockhart, Assistant Professor of History at Zayed University – Dubai, said the US-Iranian conflict “will likely continue into the foreseeable future”.
“Since the turn of the 20th century, the region has had strategic importance for Washington and other industrialised nations, from Europe to Japan, as an energy supplier. This pattern transcends partisan politics in the US.”
According to him, the difference will be found in “Democratic preferences for
diplomacy versus Republican ones for military action”.
Lockhart argued that the Biden administration will “probably be open” to continue the kind of dialogue with Tehran that the Obama administration explored, whereas Trump is likely to continue its hostility.
“Changes are happening in the region, but they are occurring in the Gulf, with the UAE and others establishing formal relations with Israel, which will, possibly lead to a trend that could see a more peaceful region in the near future. This trend enjoys strong bipartisan support in the US. And so, in my view, we will not see any major changes in US-Middle Eastern relations in a possible second Trump term or a new Biden administration.”
Fighting terror
Mohammed Baharoon, Director-General of the Dubai Public Policy Research Centre, said most of the strategic basis for the UAE’s foreign policy is shared by the Oval Office.
“The UAE has a partnership with the
US and contributes to stability in the region as well as the collective effort in countering terrorism and violent radicalism.
“This is a major pillar of the relationship and a reason of its sustainability.”