DEMOCRATS RETAIN CONTROL OVER HOUSE
Democratic party’s expectations of expanding its majority look dim as it loses three incumbents and struggles to gain more seats in initial returns
Democrats drove on Wednesday towards extending their control of the House for two more years, but their expectations of expanding their majority seemed tenuous as they lost three incumbents and failed to oust any Republican lawmakers in initial returns.
Democrats as expected picked up a pair of North Carolina seats vacated by GOP incumbents after a court-ordered remapping made the districts more Democratic. But even as they seemed likely to retain House control, the voting’s results were developing into an unexpectedly disappointing election for the party.
The parties swapped a handful of seats apiece, underscoring what seemed to be largely a status-quo House election.
After decades of trying, Republicans finally defeated 15-term Rep. Collin Peterson from a rural Minnesota district that backed President Donald Trump in 2016 by 31 percentage points, Trump’s biggest margin in any Democraticheld district. Peterson, who chairs the House Agriculture Committee, opposed Trump’s impeachment and is one of the House’s most conservative Democrats. He was defeated by Republican Michelle Fischbach, the former lieutenant governor.
Freshmen Democrats Debbie Mucarsel-Powell and Donna Shalala also lost, falling in adjacent South Florida districts in a state where Trump seemed to consolidate his support among Cuban voters.
Should Democrats retain the House majority as seemed likely, it would mark only the second time in a quarter century that they’ve controlled the chamber for two consecutive two-year Congresses. The first period ran from 2007 through 2010, Nancy Pelosi’s initial run as speaker.
Democrats’ hopes of protecting their majority and even expanding it were based on public anxiety over the pandemic, Trump’s alienation of suburban voters and a vast fundraising edge. But those advantages didn’t carry them as far as Democrats hoped.
Before votes were counted, both parties’ operatives agreed that the GOP was mostly playing defence and would be fortunate to limit Democratic gains to a modest single digits. Democrats control the House 232-197, with five open seats and one independent. It takes 218 seats to control the chamber.
Earlier on Tuesday, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-California, told reporters she was “absolutely certain” that Democrats would “solidly hold the House.” Illinois Democratic Rep. Cheri Bustos, who chairs the House Democratic campaign organisation, predicted wins in deeply red districts.
With GOP expectations for capturing the House all but nonexistent entering Election Day, Republicans were likely to view the day’s results as acceptable.
Democrats lost a series of what were viewed as coin-flip races, failing to defeat GOP incumbents in Cincinnati, rural Illinois, central Virginia and the suburbs of St. Louis.
In an example of Democrats’ disappointing showing, they failed to win an open district outside Houston where minorities have become a majority of residents. The winner, GOP Fort Bend County Sheriff Troy Nehls, had said a local mandatory mask order “looks more like a communist dictatorship than a free republic.” That race cost the two sides over $32 million, making it one of the country’s most expensive, according to the nonpartisan Center for Responsive Politics.
As if symbolically, Bustos, who leads the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, was in her own tight race. She represents a closely divided Illinois district that she won by 24 percentage points in 2018.
While some endangered Democrats like New Jersey’s Tom Malinowski held on, the party notched no initial victories in long-shot races that they’d hope would bolster their majority. Republicans retained such districts in central North Carolina and around Little Rock, Arkansas.
As Wednesday morning progressed, other hotly fought races remained undecided in states including Georgia, Texas and Virginia.
Scores of both parties’ incumbents from safe districts were easily reelected. These included progressive star Democratic Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez in New York City and both parties’ No. 3 House leaders, Democrat James Clyburn of South Carolina and Republican Liz Cheney of Wyoming.
Also coming to Washington will be New York City area Democrats Jamaal Bowman, a progressive who was backed by Ocasio-Cortez, and Ritchie Torres, who will be Congress’ first openly gay Hispanic.
Mucarsel-Powell lost to Miami-Dade County Mayor Carlos Gimenez. Mucarsel-Powell and Shalala both represent districts that Trump lost badly in his 2016 presidential race. Shalala, at 79 the House’s oldest freshman, lost to Republican Maria Salazar, a former TV news anchor.
In one noteworthy but unsurprising result, Marjorie Taylor Greene, who has espoused unfounded QAnon conspiracy theories, won a vacant seat in northwest Georgia. Trump has called Greene a “future Republican star.” QAnon asserts that Trump is quietly waging a battle against pedophiles in government.
Hanging over the contests were the coronavirus pandemic and the wounded economy, which voters ranked as top concerns, according to AP VoteCast, a national survey of the electorate. The virus has killed 232,000 people in the US and cases are rising in nearly every state, while millions have lost jobs.
Buoying Democrats was a coast-to-coast edge in campaign fundraising, including for all 29 Democrats from districts Trump won in 2016 and Republicans were targeting. By early Wednesday, Minnesota’s Peterson was the only one of those Democrats who’d lost. —
Our purpose in this race was to win so that we could protect the Affordable Care Act and so that we could crush the virus. I’m very, very proud of the fact that tonight — relatively early — we are able to say we have held the House. ”
Nancy Pelosi,
House Speaker
I am grateful for everyone who has volunteered and supported me throughout this campaign. But no matter what side of the aisle, it is my commitment to you that I will work across the aisle to continue to deliver for Illinoisans.”
Cheri Bustos,
Democratic Representative