Blowback from ISIL could hit Lebanon hard

Paradoxically, the setbacks faced by ISIL in Syria have worried Lebanese officials. They fear that Lebanese ISIL members will soon return to destabilise their own country.

In remarks to Russia’s Sputnik International news service after the recapture of Palmyra, Lebanon’s foreign minister Gebran Bassil, said he was concerned that his county could become an alternative target of the group.

However, Mr Bassil also had an interest in saying this. He heads the Free Patriotic Movement, a Christian ally of Hizbollah, and has aligned with the regime of Bashar Al Assad. By heightening the ISIL threat, he reinforces a narrative that Mr Al Assad and Hizbollah defend Lebanon against the extremists.

Still, the situation in the north-eastern Bekaa Valley is changing. Last year, Hizbollah and the Syrian army launched an offensive in Al Qalamoun on the Syrian side of the border bottling both ISIL and the Al Qaeda- affiliated Jabhat Al Nusra in areas along the Lebanese frontier. ISIL is concentrated east of the Bekaa town of Ras Baalbek, while Jabhat Al Nusra is further south around the mainly Sunni town of Arsal.

To the west of the militant groups is the Lebanese army. With the Syrian army having taken Palmyra, followed by the town of Al Qaryatain last weekend, a link-up between ISIL in Qalamoun and their comrades in Raqqa no longer seems a great risk. Surrounded and on bad terms with Jabhat Al Nusra, against which it has fought fierce battles, ISIL may decide to end this situation by trying to break through to predominantly Sunni areas of Lebanon.

At least that is the rationale some are considering. This has spurred western countries to further increase military assistance to the Lebanese army. The United Kingdom has been involved in bolstering Lebanon’s border security, and the United States has supplied the country with weapons to enhance its defensive capabilities. They include highly accurate self-propelled artillery shells, helicopters, and Super Tucano turboprop aircraft that will arrive in 2017.

Last week, the United States also transferred three new helicopters, while the UK announced that almost $29 million ( Dh106 million) would be provided to train border guards and 5,000 soldiers.

This western backing for Lebanon is in contrast to the decision of Saudi Arabia in February to suspend a $3 billion aid package to the Lebanese army.

The suspension followed rising regional tensions between the kingdom and Iran. The Saudis have said that Lebanon is dominated by Hizbollah, so it made no sense to arm an institution under the party’s influence.

A senior Saudi military official went further last week. Ahmad Al Assiri, an adviser to the defence minister, said that while Lebanon was important to the kingdom, “there is no advantage in giving weapons [ to the Lebanese army] that will end up in the hands of Hizbollah in Syria to kill the Syrian people”. Mr Assiri’s comments were met with silence in Beirut, but his argument clashed with views in other capitals. Recently, a Lebanese parliamentary delegation visited Washington and heard US defence officials praise Lebanon for having ensured that its weapons remained under the army’s control.

The suspension of the Saudi aid has had another consequence. Though intended to undermine Hizbollah, it has played into its narrative that the party alone has been a true barrier against jihadists, while Arab states have come up short in this regard.

All this has done, however, is increase Sunni frustration in Lebanon. Lebanon’s Sunnis by and large are moderate and have no sympathy for ISIL. But what they can see is that the obsession with the group has only meant less pressure on all those perceived as enemies of ISIL, above all Hizbollah.

With the focus on ISIL, relatively little attention has been paid to Jabhat Al Nusra. That may be a mistake. The group has some support among the Syrian population. While that has been changing, its appeal to the refugees in Lebanon is potentially greater than that of ISIL. Moreover, it has been as active in carrying out anti-Hizbollah activities in the country.

There has been talk that ISIL may negotiate with the Syrians and Hizbollah a withdrawal of its men from Qalamoun to Raqqa. Perhaps, but the contentious issues are many, including the group’s release of Lebanese army and security personnel abducted in 2014. Such a scenario worries Jabhat Al Nusra, which would be left alone surrounded by its enemies.

On the other hand, more recent reports in Beirut have suggested that Hizbollah is planning an offensive in Qalamoun to clear the area of both ISIL and Jabhat Al Nusra combatants. This could be risky if the two groups decide to join forces. From Lebanon’s perspective, any neutralisation of Qalamoun would be welcome. The country has faced mounting problems in recent years, and doesn’t need a new one. That’s why, for now, Hizbollah will be able to manipulate this fear to its advantage. The party’s political foes can do little about it.