Conditions for Yemeni talks still premature despite fighting
The UN’s efforts to broker a deal between Aden and the Houthi rebels have proven fruitless, as fighting steps up for control of strategic ports along Red Sea coast, Foreign Correspondent Taimur Khan reports
ABU DHABI // The latest flurry of diplomacy to end the conflict in Yemen has concluded without success as the United Nations’ peace efforts remain fruitless.
The Houthi rebels and Yemeni forces each consider the other to be in a weaker position, and neither appears to be exhausted militarily or politically despite the profound suffering of ordinary Yemenis.
UN special envoy Ismail Ould Cheikh Ahmed ended his latest round of talks with Houthi officials in Sanaa on Monday.
On the same day, Yemeni forces, backed by an Arab coalition, made their first significant territorial gains in months after capturing the port of Mokha. Mr Cheikh Ahmed held talks with Yemeni president Abdrabu Mansur Hadi, the prime minister and the foreign minister in Aden last week after meetings with senior officials from Saudi Arabia, Oman and Qatar in their respective capitals.
The UN envoy urged the rebels and their allies loyal to former president Ali Abdullah Saleh to produce a plan to withdraw their forces from the territory they had seized and the handover of weapons.
“Delays in providing the plan will result in delays to achieving peace and allow for more deaths and further economic and humanitarian deterioration,” Mr Cheikh Ahmed warned.
On January 7, the Saudi- led coalition and Yemeni forces launched a major operation against the Houthi rebels and Saleh loyalists. It was aimed at capturing strategic ports on the western coastline in Taez province near the strategic Bab Al Mandeb between the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden.
After taking the small village of Dhubab, Operation Golden Spear wrested control of the larger Mokha port from the rebels on Monday. The ultimate goal is reportedly the capture of Hodeidah, the main port for food and fuel for rebel-held territory in northern Yemen, where most of the country’s population is concentrated.
Yemeni officials said another objective was to cut off the Iranian supply of weapons to the rebels that was transported through the Red Sea ports, particularly Mokha.
Gaining control over the Red Sea’s coastline – which has mostly been in the hands of the rebels – is also aimed at finally tipping the battle for Taez city, the strategic gateway between northern and southern Yemen.
UAE forces were involved in planning the operation and providing intelligence to the Yemeni troops, which were being advised and assisted by Emirati special forces, said a source familiar with the offensive. Coalition warplanes and warships carried out strikes against rebel targets as ground forces fought to take Dhubab or Mokha. Retaking Hodeidah would be a major victory, but it is unclear how feasible and sustainable the campaign would be. Hodeidah has a much larger population than Dhubab or Mokha, increasing the likelihood of large civilian casualties. And it would require significant resources to hold and secure even if the battle was won.
“If the fighting continues to Hodeidah, there are many risks for both sides,” said April Longley Alley, who analyses the Yemen crisis for the International Crisis Group. “Hodeidah is not Aden, where the majority looked to the coalition as liberators. Instead, it is at best a mixed city, historically a stronghold of the General People’s Congress and Mr Saleh, where little happened during the 2011 uprising.”
Beyond tactical military gains, the operation appears to be aimed at the resumption of negotiations.
“Already the Houthi-Saleh bloc agreed in November to negotiate on the basis of the UN road map,” Ms Alley said.
“It seems that now the government and coalition are determined to try to break the military stalemate and bring them back to talks in a weaker position.” Yemeni government and coalition officials said that the increased military pressure on the rebel alliance was creating fissures between the Houthis and the Saleh loyalists.
But other observers said that despite potential divisions and competition for resources and power, the rebels and Mr Saleh knew that both sides would be greatly weakened and imperilled if their alliance fell apart.
It is also clear that the rebels have underestimated the resolve of the Saudi-led coalition, and they have calculated that the political and financial costs of the war would force Riyadh to blink.
As such, the conditions for meaningful negotiations are still not ripe.
The rebels have underestimated the resolve of the Saudi-led coalition