Will Erdogan get his way?

Campaigning has begun to reform Turkey’s constitution giving the president new power

After last year’s shock political events around the world, it is clear that popular referendums have the power to radically change the complexion of politics around the world. In Turkey, the ruling AKP has began a campaign to amend the constitution. The Turkish people will vote on a referendum in April that would eliminate the position of prime minister and expand the powers of the Turkish president.

This campaign doesn’t come out of thin air. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan envisioned the reformulation of power years ago while he was still prime minister. The most powerful politician since Mustafa Kemal Ataturk – the founder of the modern republic – Mr Erdogan has consolidated his hold over the country through a decade-long campaign of silencing critics and removing all political challenges. The preferred destination of Mr Erdogan’s campaign is to expand presidential power so that he can stay in control until 2029.

Mr Erdogan’s plans have not been without complications. His policy of backing rebels in the Syrian civil war has largely backfired. Turkey has been hit by a series of deadly terror attacks, including the shooting of the Russian ambassador in Ankara last December. The economy, once a bright spot among emerging markets around the world, has been struggling as the tourism sector has fallen apart. The referendum to extend presidential powers has also put Ankara’s bid to join the European Union in serious jeopardy.

In the Turkish heartlands, however, support for Mr Erdogan and his party, the AKP, remains strong. This base of supporters, which remains the single most important voting bloc, believes that Mr Erdogan’s strongman approach to problems is the right path forward. Whether or not they are correct remains to be seen, but it clear that Turkey is facing several serious challenges that will require a hefty dose of political unity. Recent history suggests that we should be prepared for any result in April. This region and the world will be paying very close attention.