Erdogan’s Gulf trip will be watched with interest

▶ The Turkish president will need to balance several competing strategic interests

Turkey’s president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, begins a twoday, three-country tour of the region today. He is expected to meet Saudi Arabia’s King Salman and Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in Jeddah, before visiting Kuwait and travelling to Qatar to talk with Sheikh Tamim.

Mr Erdogan arrives in the region at a fascinating time, particularly in the context of the ongoing rift with Doha. His itinerary appears designed to gather all sides of the argument, although few would suggest he could genuinely help mediate the dispute.

The Turkish president is, of course, hardly an impartial voice: his country shares similar political viewpoints with Doha, it has hundreds of servicemen based inside the country and Turkey’s economy has benefited from an uptick in trade with Qatar since the quartet of nations severed ties last month. But diplomacy is rarely that simple and Turkey is also a significant trading partner with others in the Gulf (including the UAE), meaning Mr Erdogan is unlikely to seek a further commercial pivot towards Qatar, particularly if it is at the expense of exports to the rest of the Gulf.

So, Mr Erdogan’s visit will be watched with interest and will involve a need to balance a range of views, not least because of his country’s broad strategic interests. Like Saudi Arabia, Turkey is a member of the G20, the group of the largest economies in the world. It is also a member of Nato and, through the Istanbul Cooperation Initiative, consults on Middle East issues with Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait and the UAE. At the same time, Turkey still has several points of conflict to resolve with the Gulf and its allies – its relations with Egypt remain fractured, for instance. Maybe this trip will be marked by some of those fences being mended.