Kirkuk could be crucible of war or independence for Kurdistan
Visitors to Kirkuk in northern Iraq are greeted by an imposing statue of a Kurdish peshmerga fighter, a reminder of tensions building in the hotly contested city before a referendum on Kurdish independence.
Erected in July, the statue has come to symbolise how the Kurds want to cement their hold on oil-rich Kirkuk and other parts of the region by holding next Monday’s vote.
The referendum is risky, especially in Kirkuk, a multi-ethnic city also claimed by Arabs since oil was discovered there in the 1930s. The Kurdistan region produces about 600,000 barrels of oil per day.
The central government in Baghdad, Iraq’s neighbours and western powers fear the vote could divide the country and spark a wider regional conflict, after Arabs and Kurds cooperated to dislodge ISIL from Mosul.
Some non-Kurds fear Baghdad will attempt to regain control of Kirkuk and send in Shiite militias, also known as the Hashed Al Shaabi, stationed just outside the province.
The militias, which are backed by Iran, fear an independent Kurdistan would split Iraq, giving them and Tehran less influence.
Kirkuk, populated by Kurds, Arabs, Turkmen, Christians and other minorities, is one of 15 mixed areas in northern Iraq that will participate in the referendum. They are claimed by both the central government in Baghdad and the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG).
A decision by KRG president Masoud Barzani to include these so-called disputed territories in the plebiscite was interpreted as a move to consolidate Kurdish control.
Tensions between the KRG and Baghdad are not new, and hinge on oil revenues. The Kurds have long accused Baghdad of failing to make budget payments to the region, while central government has opposed oil deals made by the Kurds without its consent.
Nevertheless, the Kurds have been marking their territory. Peshmerga outposts dot the area, protecting the oil fields on Kirkuk’s outskirts. Kurdish flags have been hoisted across the city since the spring, and fly alongside Iraqi flags on government buildings.
Dreaming of statehood since the First World War, the Kurds say they are ready to fight if necessary. “Kurdistan’s land belongs to the Kurdish people,” said Kemal Al Kirkuki, the Kurdish military commander responsible for the front line against ISIL.
“No one, not the PMU [Hashed Al Shaabi], has the right to take it ... we will ask them to leave Kurdish territory, peacefully. But we are prepared to fight if we need to.”
The conflict over the disputed territories is bitter. If the Kurdistan region of Iraq declared a break-off from Baghdad, Kirkuk would fall right on the border between the two. Kirkuk produces about a quarter of the region’s oil.
“If the Kurds want to press for a separation of sorts,” said Joost Hiltermann, Mena programme director at the International Crisis Group, “the boundary question becomes critically important.”
“If Baghdad and Erbil continue to take unilateral steps,” he said, “things can only escalate.”
There are no reliable statistics on Kirkuk’s population, where both Kurds and Arabs say they have a majority; vital to legitimise their respective claims over the province.
Kirkuk was meant to have a census under the 2005 constitution, drafted two years after former Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein was toppled in the US-led invasion, but it did not take place because of the risk of ethnic and religious tensions.
During Saddam’s Anfal campaign waged against the Kurds in the 1980s, there was a forced “Arabisation” of disputed areas, which ejected Kurds from the province. Arabs from other parts of Iraq were then settled.
Many Arabs have been ousted since Saddam was toppled in 2003, emboldening the Kurds to reclaim large parts of the disputed territories, including Kirkuk. Displaced Kurds were provided with incentives to return, while Kurds from other areas were also moved in, angering other minorities.
“Since 2003 about 600,000 Kurds have arrived, many of them are here illegally,” said Ali Sadiq, a Turkmen member of Kirkuk’s local council. “Without dialogue everything is possible.
“We need to avoid a war engulfing the whole of Iraq.”
Without dialogue everything is possible. We need to avoid a war engulfing the whole of Iraq ALI SADIQ Kirkuk councillor