Passions aroused about a non-binding vote with no process to separation

Iraq’s autonomous Kurdish region has held its long-awaited referendum on independence despite international opposition, with results expected to be heavily tipped in favour of separation.

But although the referendum will bolster calls for Kurdish independence from Iraq, the vote has no legal mandate.

Iraqi Kurdish president Masoud Barzani, who led the independence drive, has reassured the international community that the referendum is non-binding and is meant to act as a “legitimate mandate” to negotiate secession of Kurdish-controlled regions of Iraq with Baghdad.

Baghdad’s central government has repeatedly rejected the poll, describing it as illegal and unconstitutional, while Tehran and Ankara fear the vote will ignite separatist aspirations among their own sizeable Kurdish minorities.

There is a fear among the international community, meanwhile, that a “Yes” vote will generate an unstoppable momentum for independence that will eventually lead to revolt and bloodshed.

“Legally there is no process for separation in Iraq, so independence for Kurdistan has to come from a ruling outside of the Iraqi constitution,” said Dr Renad Mansour, senior fellow at the British think tank Chatham House.

Article one of the Iraqi constitution stipulates that “the Republic of Iraq is a single, independent federal state with full sovereignty”. As a result, for Iraqi Kurdistan to gain independence the “international community must recognise it” Mr Mansour said.

Mohammed Hineidi, a Dubai expert on the Levant, said a “Yes” vote would give Mr Barzani a mandate to begin secession talks with the central Iraqi government, despite Baghdad saying it would not enter into independence negotiations with Erbil, the capital of the Kurdish region.

But he said: “For Iraq now, not much will change on the ground, unless violence erupts in the oil rich contested city of Kirkuk, which the Iraqi government has threatened with military intervention.”

The ethnically diverse city of Kirkuk is one of several areas outside of the autonomous Kurdish region that are controlled by Kurds, but claimed by Erbil and Baghad.

Mr Barzani stressed on Sunday that the referendum result would not draw borders, and that a “Yes” vote would result in talks with Baghdad lasting at least a year or two.

But he said that the “failed partnership” with the “sectarian state” of Iraq was over.

“Baghdad will likely make its move on the disputed areas prior to negotiations in order to limit Kurdistan just to Erbil, Dahok, Sulemanyia, and this will reduce Kurdistan’s leverage even more,” said Michael Rubin, resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute think tank in Washington.

“When it comes to negotiation, while Baghdad might eventually offer some sort of confederation, in the short term I wouldn’t expect change.

“Baghdad will be content to let Kurdistan experience the economic hardship that it can expect if it tries to go it alone as a landlocked, politically divided country.”

As a landlocked region, an independent Iraqi Kurdistan would need to ensure it had allies in neighbouring states, Mr Mansour said.

“The Kurds need friends to be able to import and export oil and gas. For them, Turkey is the most important actor.”

Ankara has strongly declared its opposition to the referendum, carrying out military exercises near its border with the Iraqi Kurdish region.

But Mr Mansour said: “Behind closed doors the vote will not impact relations between the two, as long as the Kurds do not declare independence.”

So why has Mr Barzani pushed for a non-binding referendum?

Mr Mansour believes it is important to recognise the referendum within the context of a post-ISIL Iraqi settlement.

“With the military battle against ISIL declining, many of the political parties are coming to the table to negotiate a rebuilding of the Iraqi state,” Mr Mansour said.

“The Kurds believe that in order for them to have strong leverage at the table in this process, they need to have some sort of threat of independence or some sort of power.”

And Mr Barzani was “keen to hold the referendum now to distract from the criticisms being levelled against him and his administration”, Mr Hineidi said.