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Rising sea levels could cause Abu Dhabi’s coastline to retreat by several kilometres by the year 2100.
Researchers predict that the climate change-induced sea level changes, and the knockon effect on the ecology of the coastline, will cause the shoreline to retreat by up to 3.81km this century.
While many of the emirate’s built-up areas may not be flooded because they are on land that was elevated during the building process, other coastal regions could be significantly affected.
The first author of the study, Dr Stephen Lokier, an associate professor at the Petroleum Institute Abu Dhabi, said measurements found that the shoreline retreat was greater than expected given how fast the sea level is rising.
“When we started looking at what was happening we were genuinely surprised,” he said.
Sea levels around the world are rising by about 3.2 millimetres a year, which would be expected to cause the shoreline to retreat by about 2.5 metres a year; however, the actual retreat observed is between 10 and 29m per year.
Shoreline retreat has been increased by a process called “dynamic flooding”, in which the effect of the rise in sea level is multiplied because it increases erosion by, for example, changing the mangroves and the “mats” of microorganisms that line much of the coast.
The study, published in the journal Geomorphology, warns that the retreat of the shoreline “will threaten existing coastal infrastructure”.
“You can elevate the coastline where you have infrastructure. If you don’t do it for the whole coastline ... this flooding, could isolate these areas,” said Dr Lokier said.
“The other concern is that as sea level rises, you have coastal defences that may be one or two metres above the current sea level, but the increase in the energy because of the rising sea level hasn’t always been considered.”
The other authors of the study, entitled Implications of sea-level rise in a modern carbonate ramp setting, are Wesley Court and Dr Andreas Paul, who were both at the Petroleum Institute when the work was carried out, and Dr Takumi Onuma of JGI, a Japanese surveying company.
The Environment Agency – Abu Dhabi said that it had carried out a number of studies on climate change, including one focused on sea level rise and another on its effect.
The agency said there were limitations to predicting sea level rise because of “large uncertainties over the extent of melting in the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets”.
“It is difficult to state with certainty what the actual level of sea level rise in 2100 is likely to be, but it is certain that some will occur.”
Tidal gauges have been installed at different locations in Abu Dhabi to measure sea level changes, but the agency said the absence of long-term recording of sea level change and other measurements “make it challenging to model SLR impacts” as multiple factors affect the amount of flooding and erosion damage.
The agency said that Plan Abu Dhabi 2030 states that because of potential sea level rises, “all new waterfront development should be planning for higher water levels at their edge”.
Abu Dhabi’s development code notes that seawalls may be required to protect the land from the sea or prevent faster shoreline erosion.
Environmental campaigners meanwhile said the research highlighted the need for action to combat climate change as well as measures to mitigate its effects.
Julien Jreissati, Arab world campaigner at Greenpeace Mediterranean, said countries needed to cut greenhouse gas emissions and focus on renewable energy technology.
“Sea level rise along with desertification and extreme heat are direct consequences of climate change and will render daily life in the UAE very challenging in the near future if the fight against climate change is not seriously ramped up at a local, regional and national level,” he said.
He said the UAE “should lead by example” and transition to 100 per cent renewable energy and “decarbonise their transport sector, which currently almost exclusively relies on petrol”.
“The UAE needs as well to take the appropriate adaptation measures such as safeguarding and boosting their mangroves population, which would provide a good barrier against sea level rise and erosion,” he said.
Seawalls may be required to protect the land from the sea or prevent faster shoreline erosion