AFRIN WAR MAY DRAG ON FOR MONTHS
Commanders on the ground fear protracted battle for Syrian enclave
Turkey’s military offensive in the majority Kurdish enclave of Afrin in north Syria could take many months rather than the few weeks originally planned, according to commanders on the ground.
Seven Turkish soldiers were killed on Saturday in attacks by Kurdish militias, making it the single deadliest day in the Afrin campaign so far for Ankara.
The deaths highlighted the challenges facing the military as it seeks to oust the Kurdish militias from its border with Syria, and the brewing geopolitical battle with the United States, a Nato ally, which had armed the same militias Turkey is now fighting.
“They will pay for this twice as much,” Prime Minister Binali Yildirim wrote on Twitter, referring to the militants who had killed Turkish soldiers. “We instantly gave the necessary response, and we continue to do so.”
Turkey launched Operation Olive Branch, an incursion led by Syrian rebels backed by Ankara, two weeks ago.
The area is controlled by the Democratic Union Party (PYD) and its military wing, the People’s Protection Units (YPG). The two groups are backed by the United States-led coalition against ISIL, which relied on their fighters in ground engagements to oust the terrorist group from its strongholds in Syria, including the city of Raqqa.
But the PYD and YPG are also the Syrian wing of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), a designated terrorist group that has fought a decades-long insurgency against the Turkish state.
Initial statements by leading Turkish officials had asserted that the campaign would be concluded in a short time, but limited gains because of what they say is an attempt to limit civilian casualties, mean it now appears it may take months to resolve.
“If you’re optimistic,” said one Turkish-aligned rebel fighter taking part in the campaign, when asked if the operation could take six months. He said the YPG fighters had fought fiercely in the initial
phase of the battles and had prepared effective defensive lines.
Turkish officials also say US policy in Syria now risks prolonging the war.
Ankara tolerated Washington’s reliance on the Kurdish militias in the campaign against ISIL but after the extremists’ defeat in Syria Turkey has demanded an end to American military support for them.
The cause of the Afrin campaign was a US announcing that it would create a 30,000-strong border force to patrol Syria’s frontiers, including the YPG, a prospect that Turkey decided was a security threat.
“We are urging our American allies to stop supporting YPG and PYD because now, as they say, the Daesh threat has been eliminated in Syria,” said Ibrahim Kalin, the spokesman for Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the Turkish President, in Istanbul.
“For the last two years they told us and everyone that they support PYD because of the Daesh threat and now Daesh is over, but they still continue to support them militarily [and] politically.”
Turkey’s dispute with the US over its support for Kurdish militias has raised questions over Washington’s long-term plans for Syria and its presence there, which has expanded despite the declared military defeat of ISIL in Iraq and Syria.
Rex Tillerson, the US Secretary of State, last month outlined the Trump administration’s Syria strategy, indicating its support for a long-term presence that would prevent the re-emergence of ISIL and counter-balance Iran’s growing influence in Syria and Iraq.
Those plans have alarmed critics who say the US is setting the stage for a continued proxy war in Syria that makes a political settlement less likely. Critics are concerned that its continued reliance on the Kurdish militias will create an effective autonomous zone with American security guarantees.
Those concerns have exacerbated tensions between the US and Turkey, two Nato members whose relations have suffered because of Syria.
“What they see is that Iran is going to stay in Syria in the long run,” said a senior Turkish official. “This idea, supported by the Americans, Saudis and Israelis, [is] that there should be some counter force against the Iranian presence in Syria.
“This kind of Iran, Iran, Iran emphasis or obsession drives them into this kind of policy, and Syrian territories are just becoming a scene for this proxy war now,” the official said.