WILL IRAQ’S COALITION EXTINGUISH HOPE FOR CHANGE TO SECTARIAN GOVERNMENT?
▶ As Sairoun and Fatah join forces, experts say the Shia superbloc only has grim prospects for Iraqi politics
The newly formed alliance between Iraq’s populist Shiite cleric and an Iran-backed coalition is a setback for hopes that last month’s elections could steer the country away from sectarianism.
Moqtada Al Sadr’s Sairoun and Hadi Al Amiri’s Fatah blocs won first and second place in the elections, which have been marred by claims of fraud and vote rigging.
“The formation of a new Shia superbloc is predictable but nonetheless represents a missed opportunity to do something new – a diverse majority government in which some Shia blocs are excluded – and a return to something familiar,” Michael Knights of the Washington Institute told The National.
Mr Al Amiri, a fluent Farsi speaker, is Iran’s closest ally in Iraq, having spent two years in exile there during the era of former dictator Saddam Hussein.
Yet Mr Al Sadr’s win could have dramatically changed Baghdad’s political landscape with external powers. He is known as a nationalist leader, waging anti-American and Iranian campaigns, and for his populist appeal to Iraq’s young and poor.
“It’s not a surprise. We knew that Fatah would continue to control the Ministry of Interior, which is one of the biggest sovereign ministries in Iraq’s government, and they will continue to be a big part of it,” said Renad Mansour, of Chatham House in London.
Late on Tuesday, both leaders underscored that their alliance, announced in the Shiite holy city of Najaf, was aimed at expediting the formation of a new government and they called on others to join them.
Although the alliance controls 101 seats, it is still far from the 165 required for a majority.
“Al Sadr wants to maintain the victory of his list, so by negotiating with other Iranian backed groups it doesn’t mean that Al Sadr is a puppet of Iran, it’s about the negotiations on how to deal with Iran,” Mr Mansour said.
The populist, who derives much of his legitimacy from his revered father Grand Ayatollah Mohammad Sadiq Sadr, who was assassinated in 1999 by Saddam’s agents, is unpredictable.
He also has street power, as he managed to mobilise tens of thousands of supporters to protest against opponents and government policies in the years before the election.
But while most Iraqis have yearned for a non-sectarian Iraq, last month’s election has not changed the country’s political scene, observers say.
“Each of Iraq’s elections have produced fundamentally sectarian results.
“Kurds vote for Kurds, Sunnis for Sunnis, and Shia for Shia,” said Ali Khedery, chief executive of Dragoman Ventures, an international strategic advisory.
“A non-sectarian or cross-sectarian element of the population has always existed.”
Iran has previously manipulated the formation of Iraq’s governments and its militia allies are the most powerful forces in the country.
Tehran is under pressure to maintain its deep influence in Iraq, its most important Arab ally, at a time when its wider regional interests are under threat.
“Iran has cleverly taken full advantage of America’s countless missteps since 2003, and it has intentionally sought to weaken, divide, and transform
When the next Iraqi government is announced, it will have been blessed by Iran ANDREW PARASILITI Director of Centre for Global Risk and Security, Rand Corporation
Iraq into an Iranian vassal,” Mr Khedery said.
The latest alliance may serve the purposes of the most powerful sides in Iraq politics as the country tries to rebuild from the devastating, yearslong war against ISIS.
“For those who thought that Iraq’s elections might have been a setback for Iran, time to think again,” said Andrew Parasiliti of the Rand Corporation.
“Despite positive signs of cross-sectarian coalitions and constituencies, the politicking around a new government is turning out to be more of the same. When the next Iraqi government is announced, it will have been blessed by Iran.”
Mr Khedery said that Iraq’s prospects look “very grim”, and as a result the Middle East seems “destined for further convulsions”.