After Aoun, there’s a nephew and a son-in-law

The FPM is riding high. One of the two biggest Christian parties, it has been a consistent force in cabinet and parliament since 83-year-old founder Michel Aoun’s return from 15 years in exile in 2005.

Mr Aoun won the 29-month battle of attrition to be crowned president of the republic in 2016.

The party’s current leader – Mr Aoun’s son-in-law Gebran Bassil – managed to win a parliamentary seat in May’s election after failing twice.

That said, there are many signs its days at the forefront of decision-making could be numbered.

The fight for leadership of the party in 2015 happened largely behind closed doors – Mr Bassil won unopposed but only after his father-in-law’s intervention.

The decision was a bitter pill to swallow for other senior party members – many of whom are also Mr Aoun’s immediate family.

The rifts simmer below the surface and while Mr Bassil is still young at 48, Mr Aoun is not. When he dies – he is rumoured to have suffered several minor strokes – the party could be torn apart from the inside by score-settling and resentment.

Mr Aoun’s nephew, MP Alain Aoun, and other son-in-law, MP Chamel Roukoz, are also widely popular inside the FPM.

Alain Aoun was tipped as the next head of the FPM before Mr Aoun senior asked him to withdraw in favour of Mr Bassil.

Whether he will seek to redress this after Mr Aoun is gone is a major question mark over the FPM’s future.

The most recent parliamentary elections in May showed a wide split within the party. Many of its candidates were not official party members.

“To what extent can Bassil ensure the FPM remains intact?” said Lebanese American University professor Imad Salamey. “This is not going to be easy, especially with the competition within the Aoun family making the potential for a break-up also high.”