THE YOUNG FACES TAKING THE REINS OF LEBANON’S POLITICAL DYNASTIES
▶ It may be a time of political change – but the old and new are oddly similar, writes James Haines-Young
On the surface, Lebanese politics can appear static.
The same men who led militias through the 15-year civil war still lead many of the largest parties in Parliament and – some waxing and waning of influence aside – a small group of people still hold most influence in the country.
But Lebanon is facing the start of a new era as many of its ageing political leaders look to their legacies and begin passing on the reins to the first postwar generation.
While those in power have on most counts governed poorly – the economy is stagnant, unemployment is high, crumbling infrastructure fails to provide even basic services and anything but the most straightforward decisions can be bogged down for years in back-and-forth bickering – they have largely managed to preserve a semblance of stability.
Many put this down to the excellent training in self-preservation and brinkmanship hard-earned in the bloody civil war that ended in 1990.
A concern for some and a major relief for others is that senior politicians are giving up their seats in parliament.
But the extent to which the next generation will have the skills to prevent disputes spilling on to the streets is questionable.
Some fear their inexperience and having been born close to or just after the end of the war could lead to political or violent escalation.
“Lebanon is set up as a consociation democracy and, in such political systems, elite co-operation [and] deal-making is essential for sustaining stability,” said Firas Maksad, director of Arabia Foundation.
In Lebanon, comprised of diverse ethnic, religious and sectarian groups, consociationalism is a power-sharing system that divvies up key positions between factions to ensure a theoretically equal voice. The downside to this is “nepotism and corruption, which has now reached unprecedented levels”.
But, Mr Maksad said, this wheeler-dealing means self-interest is built in and could therefore avoid escalation to a renewed conflict.
“Presumably, these new generations of political elites who have inherited power have a built-in motivation to maintain the system and stability – if only for their own interest,” he said. “This includes trimming back dangerous excess and precluding future armed conflict, irrespective of whether they’ve experienced the war or not.”
Lebanon has also long been buffeted by the interests of outside powers, often pushed and pulled in different directions. Alongside the well-established regional forces, western states have been active in Lebanon in recent years. Their focus – seen in military support and the billions of dollars in loans and aid pledged this year for development projects – is aimed at stability and taking the country out of the doldrums.
Western governments will watch the shifting sands of Lebanese politics with interest and they will hope the groups can continue to function.
“Whatever [western countries] may think of these groups, they understand that they function like governments and have some degree of stability and accountability,” said Michael Fischbach, a professor at Randolph-Macon College in the United States.
With these major challenges in mind, The National breaks down the fortunes and favours of Lebanon’s top players.