The National - News

Given the threat of assassinat­ion, is a successor already lined up?

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The immensely powerful Hezbollah has the ability to act largely as it chooses internally and has strong influence regionally.

As the only militia that did not disarm post-civil war, it has the ability to impose its will. Short of a regional and internatio­nal agreement to disarm Hezbollah, the party will continue to enjoy dominance.

The only short-term impediment to the party could come from pressure on Iran through US sanctions. The party needs significan­t amounts of cash to maintain its wide social network and well-trained and numerous militias and keep up preparatio­ns for a future war with Israel, to say nothing of its heavy involvemen­t in the Syrian war or other regional conflicts, from Yemen to Iraq.

The party is well run at the top and is known for discipline throughout its ranks of supporters.

The party’s internal Shura Council and other leadership bodies have sway on the decisions of the secretary general and Iran maintains a say in key issues.

This stops the party’s power and therefore fate being wrapped up in one person.

Leader Hassan Nasrallah has a dangerous job and he is rarely seen in public due to the threat of Israeli or US assassinat­ion. As such, it’s unlikely the party does not have robust leadership contingenc­ies to handle the abrupt – or otherwise – exit of Mr Nasrallah.

But Mr Berri’s succession problems could pose a problem for the Shiite sect as a whole.

If it assumes the political mantle of Amal after Mr Berri leaves politics, Hezbollah is likely to lose a key conduit to the West.

Although European states largely differenti­ate between political and military arms of Hezbollah, Mr Berri enjoys much more regular contact with the West as well as the ability to travel freely, unlike many of his Hezbollah colleagues.

 ??  ?? Hassan Nasrallah
Hassan Nasrallah

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