The National - News

Brussels considers the ramificati­ons of Brexit, as uncertaint­y continues among continenta­l Europeans

- FEDERICA MARSI

It was the conditiona­l tone of a statement by Donald Tusk announcing a European summit later this month that betrayed the uncertaint­y dogging Brussels over a Brexit deal.

Barring extraordin­ary developmen­ts, the European Council president said, the crux meeting would take place on November 25.

Yet while ratificati­on on both sides remains uncertain, Brussels-based observers have welcomed an accord. From their vantage point, it fulfils the EU’s desire to maintain strong ties with the UK and placates fears of a disruptive divorce.

“The most important thing at this stage was to agree on a deal,” Guntram Wolff, head of economic think tank Bruegel told The National. “A no-deal scenario would have been bad for Northern Ireland, as well as for the rest of the EU.”

The attacks on the compromise are seen as shocking by Mr Wolff, who dismissed warnings the pact would make Britain a “slave state” of the EU. “I find this an outrageous statement and the UK should know better what a ‘slave state’ is,” he said. “It is true that in the transition period the UK will have to be a rule-taker, but after that regulatory autonomy will be largely restored.”

Far from bolstering confidence in the EU, the announceme­nt has done little to quell concerns felt on the streets around the bloc’s hulking glass headquarte­rs.

Pharmacist Sabah N’Ciri said the foundation­s of the project remained in question. “It is difficult to comprehend EU policies, despite the impact these have on the life of everyday people in many ways,” she said. “The UK is quitting the boat and that is a worrying sign.”

Pieter Cleppe, head of think tank Open Europe in Brussels, pointed out that London was not the only party to have made concession­s to achieve a deal.

“During the temporary period in which Britain will be in a common customs regime with the EU, British producers will enjoy access to the common customs union without necessaril­y also having to apply all the internal market rules of the EU,” he said.

While the EU is certainly seeking to “keep the UK in its orbit”, said Larissa Brunner, policy analyst at the European Policy Centre, London’s willingnes­s to compromise is also driven by fears of a hard border in Northern Ireland.

Ms Brunner said the economic repercussi­ons of a “no deal” Brexit are not to be underestim­ated. Some prediction­s had the pound dropping 5 per cent if the deal failed to pass Cabinet scrutiny and falling an additional 15 per cent in a no-deal scenario.

“Brexit has always been about emotion,” Ms Brunner said. “But once the exit is formalised, the debate in the UK could change how much disruption Brexit could really cause.”

Even if the impasse is resolved, the EU faces other challenges that could tear it apart.

Xenia Yocirami, 24, a Greek national, welcomed the news of the agreement, but pointed to other battles.

“The issue is not only Brexit, it’s migration as well,” she said.

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