Political turmoil in Israel may raise risks of a new Gaza war
A volatile situation on the Israel-Gaza border could become even more tense if Israel moves towards early elections, Palestinian analysts say.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is facing pressure to call early polls, perhaps as soon as February, after Defence Minister Avigdor Liberman resigned and pulled his hardright Yisrael Beiteinu party out of Israel’s ruling coalition last week, leaving it with just 61 out of 120 seats in parliament.
Another right-wing party, Jewish Home, is calling for early elections. Its leader, Naftali Bennett, was rebuffed on Friday when he demanded to become the new defence minister so that he could, in his own words, lead Israel to victory over Hamas.
Mr Netanyahu’s government was thrown into turmoil when he agreed to a ceasefire with Hamas on Tuesday after a new round of violence killed six Gazans and one Israeli.
Mr Liberman and Mr Bennett accused the prime minister of responding weakly by accepting a ceasefire. Mr Liberman accused Mr Netanyahu of “capitulating to terror”.
Hamas and other groups fired an estimated 450 rockets into southern Israel, while Israel carried out air strikes against 160 targets during the latest round of fighting.
Hamas is now claiming victory and its leader, Yahya Sinwar, threatened on Friday to hit Tel Aviv next time. With residents of southern Israel burning tyres and blocking roads in protest at the decision to halt attacks on Gaza, Mr Netanyahu is in a vulnerable position.
“If Mr Netanyahu feels he is in problematic circumstances related to the most extreme parties in Israel, maybe he will go for an attack,” said Ashraf Al Ajrami, a former minister in the Palestinian Authority.
Mr Ajrami does not believe Mr Netanyahu would deliberately launch an all-out war during an election campaign. But if he feels he is losing ground politically, he may opt for an assassination of a Hamas leader, even if it draws more rocket fire in response.
Given that there have been three devastating Israeli military campaigns in Gaza over the past decade, all of them justified by Israel as necessary responses to rocket attacks, the danger of an escalation is real.
Mkhaimar Abusada, a political scientist at Al Azhar University in Gaza city, said the outcome would depend on Hamas’s behaviour during an Israeli election.
“If Hamas in Gaza provokes Israel, then Mr Netanyahu, under internal Israeli pressure, might take advantage to wage a strong military campaign against Gaza which would help him in the election,” Mr Abusada said.
He believed there would be no progress during the election campaign in moving towards a long-term ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, despite diplomatic efforts by Egypt and other third parties for a lasting solution.
This is mainly because Hamas feels buoyed by the outcome of last week’s confrontation and will increase its demands, while Mr Netanyahu will be wary of making concessions which could harm his chances of re-election, Mr Abusada said.
Irrespective of whether or not Israel heads to early polls, the Palestinian public has little hope that any solution will be reached, he said, adding that it also did not matter which group secured a majority in elections.
“People are convinced that it doesn’t matter whether the right wing or centre-left wins,” Mr Abusada said.
He said he was hoping for a centre-left victory because it would reduce Israel’s settlement drive in the occupied West Bank.
Mr Ajrami also had low expectations.
“Unfortunately the Israeli political map is now a right-wing one,” he said. “So we really don’t see any change for better circumstances coming.
“But if there is a surprise, it will be good for Palestinians and Israelis to have a peace process because under this coalition there is no hope.”