WASHINGTON WAKES UP FROM SYRIA SLUMBER TO TALK TO RUSSIA

▶ Moscow agrees to a rare high-level meeting with the US, but Iranian power overshadows that of its ally

Top US security officials will meet their Russian counterparts in Israel this month for rare high-level discussions on Syria. They will face an uphill battle trying to convince Moscow to rein in Iran, with Washington having all but vanished from the political radar as Tehran’s proxies took control on the ground. Washington announced that National Security Adviser John Bolton would meet Russian Security Council Secretary Nikolai Patrushev in June, but did not specify the date. Moscow lets Israel strike Iranian targets in Syria regularly and the presence of the Israeli National Security Adviser, Meir Ben-Shabbat, at the meeting is an indication of Russian recognition of Israel’s concerns about Iran’s military reach. Syrian opposition sources said, however, that Iranian weapon caches in Syria are purposefully cheap and easy to replenish. Many of them appear to have been moved underground, they said.

Moscow has agreed to the meeting, although Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said last month that US demands regarding Iran in Syria and the rest of the Middle East were unrealistic.

Washington had ignored the spread of Iranian influence in Syria as it pursued a nuclear deal with Tehran and focused on defeating ISIS under the Barack Obama administration.

Despite President Donald Trump’s criticism of his predecessor, under him little has changed as far as practical policy in Syria is concerned.

Anthony Godfrey, the deputy US chief of mission at the US embassy in Moscow, told Tass news agency this week that Russia was aware that some Iranian policies were not in the Kremlin’s interest and that Washington hoped the meeting in Israel would produce “a

more productive way” to deal with Iran. Ayman Abdel Nour, a veteran Syrian political analyst, said Moscow might agree with Washington on a need to remove Iranian forces from Syrian border areas with Iraq, partly because their strength there threatens Israel.

The Shiite militias serving as Iranian proxies assumed control of the Syrian border town of Al Bukamal and other border areas, securing an Iranian-controlled line that stretches from Iran, through Syria, to Hezbollah strongholds in Lebanon’s Bekaa Valley.

Despite Russia’s military strikes and its crucial backing of scorched earth campaigns by the Syrian regime against masses of its population, Moscow has faced limits to its abilities in Syria.

A US-backed Kurdish militia has been in control of large stretches of eastern Syria since it helped Washington defeat ISIS this year, forming the bulk of the ground component of the operations. An announcement by Mr Trump in February of a withdrawal of US forces from Syria has not been realised, and a five-week Russian air campaign on the opposition-held Idlib governorate appears to have stalled as opposition forces fought loyalist forces – with apparent Turkish help.

Mr Abdel Nour said that renewed Turkish support for the rebels was probably met with approval in Washington.

“Remember, the Americans, too, can act as spoilers,” Mr Abdel Nour said.

Moscow intervened militarily in the Syrian conflict in late 2015 to prop up the regime of Bashar Al Assad. Mostly extremist rebel forces advanced through northern Syria and came close to isolating the heartland of Mr Al Assad’s support in the coastal mountains from his seat of power in Damascus.

After the Russian intervention, Washington reduced its backing for southern rebels in areas close to Israel.

Eventually, Washington abandoned those rebels by not opposing a deal between Russia and Israel to let the Assad regime back into the south.

But rebel surrender there has been followed by a plethora of Iran-backed militias, supervised by Hezbollah, which have spread in the south and led a militia recruitment, residents and opposition sources said.

Across Syria, but especially in the south, Iran has been working closely with Air Force Intelligence and Military Intelligence, two of the many Syrian secret police branches that have been most lethal in the crackdown on the initially peaceful protest movement.

Iran has built up a loyalist militia in areas on the Lebanese border and in Aleppo, as well as in Deir Ezzor province on the border of Iraq.

Russia might be uncomfortable with Iran having such a strong spread on the ground in Syria, said Syrian political writer Mazen Ezzi. But Moscow lacks the tools to rein in Tehran, he said, pointing to other interests between Moscow and Tehran, such as ties to the nuclear and the oil and gas sectors. “Moscow cannot afford to be at odds too much with Iran in Syria. For Russia, Syria is a negotiation platform to open venues with other world powers. Syria for Iran is a physical cornerstone in which they have invested massively,” Mr Ezzi said. “The Russians realise their firepower is not enough in Syria,” Mr Ezzi said. “On the ground they need the Iranian militias that are full of ideological fervour.”

Washington had ignored the spread of Iranian influence in Syria as it pursued a nuclear deal with Tehran

While most of the attention concerning US President Donald Trump’s state visit to Britain this week focused on the enduring strength of US-UK relations, the presence of his top national security team in London provided a valuable opportunity to seek clarification on Washington’s latest thinking regarding a number of vital global security issues.

And perhaps the most revealing comments to emerge, so far as the Middle East region is concerned, were the insights I was able to glean during my interview in London with John Bolton, the US national security adviser, on the Trump administration’s policy towards Iran.

Tensions between Washington and Tehran have risen considerably in recent weeks with the US accusing Iran of planning attacks against the US and its allies. The Iranians are said to be seeking ways to retaliate for the Trump administration’s decision to withdraw from the 2015 nuclear deal and impose hard-hitting sanctions against the regime.

The sanctions have had a disastrous impact on the Iranian economy, and senior figures in Iran’s security establishment are said to be keen to retaliate. US intelligence officials have blamed Iran for the recent bomb attacks against four oil tankers moored off the coast of Fujairah, as well as a drone strike on a pipeline in Saudi Arabia’s eastern province, and a rocket attack said to have been aimed at the US Embassy in Baghdad.

Mr Bolton has now promised to provide the UN with evidence of Iranian involvement in the attacks.

Moreover, acting on intelligence reports that Iran was planning further attacks in the Strait of Hormuz and other vital shipping lanes in the region, the US has deployed an aircraft carrier battle group, four B-52 bombers and 1,500 extra troops.

“Under the Obama administration, Iran felt they had us in their pockets, so the Iranians did not fear us anymore,” Mr

Bolton told me. “Now they need to worry that if they do something they will pay a price.”

Mr Bolton spoke to me shortly after travelling to London from Abu Dhabi, where he met with Mohammed bin Zayed, Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi and Deputy Supreme Commander of the Armed Forces, for lengthy discussions on a number of regional security issues, including Iran.

“The president has made it clear that we are ready to negotiate on the nuclear issue,” Mr Bolton explained. “But we are not going to accept Iranian threats to restrict access in the Strait of Hormuz, or that threaten our allies’ interests.

“That is why we took the military steps we did – not because we want conflict, but precisely because we want to avoid it. We want to create the structures of deterrence that will convince Iran that this would be a dangerous course for them to pursue. It would be a very foolish mistake for Iran to doubt our resolve.”

As someone who is credited in Washington with being the architect of the Trump administration’s robust stance on Iran, Mr Bolton is dismissive of European claims that the sanctions will fail to meet their objectives.

“Everyone said the sanctions would not work, but we have demonstrated we can do this on our own,” he said. “Regime change is not the president’s policy. We want to negotiate a new deal.

“The sanctions are working. The Iranian economy is close to collapse. Countries have a choice: “Would you rather do business with Iran or the US?” And they have chosen the US.

“The sanctions are having a very big impact on Iran’s ability to finance the Revolutionary Guard and other terrorist groups. We do not want a war with Iran. But if you look at the central cause of trouble in the Middle East today, it is Iran.”

President Trump later backed up Mr Bolton’s warnings during his state visit to Britain when he said there was “always a chance” the US could launch military action against Iran, even though his administration’s preferred option was for a negotiated settlement.

Mr Bolton is also frustrated with the attitude of many European states – including Britain – over their approach to Iran, where they have refused to back Washington’s policy, and have instead reiterated their commitment to the 2015 deal.

As US and European leaders gathered to mark the 75th anniversary of the D-Day landings in Normandy, the audacious military operation that ultimately led to the defeat of Nazi Germany, Mr Bolton called for greater co-operation between western democracies in order to demonstrate the same level of resolve to counter future threats.

“It is a mistake to say we passed the end of history as some people said at the end of the Cold War,” Mr Bolton told me. “We hoped it might be the case, but it turned out not to be true, and we have to acknowledge the real world that we live in.

“The best way to protect our common values is to make sure that we are prepared to resist challenges. This is what Ronald Reagan called ‘peace through strength’. And if people are prepared to live up to that, then we should be united going forward.”

Unsurprisingly, Mr Bolton’s robust approach to Iran and other high-priority national security issues, such as China and North Korea, has made him many enemies. In Washington there are constant media reports that he is about to be sacked, while senior government ministers in Tehran have resorted to personal abuse.

In one of the more colourful interventions, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s supreme leader, accused Mr Bolton of suffering from “chronic hallucinatory psychosis”.

But Mr Bolton said he is unfazed by such attempts to diminish his credibility.

“Iran believes that if it attacks the president’s advisers, then somehow it will split the president away. It is just a propaganda campaign.

“I like that old Central Asian saying, ‘The dogs bark, and the caravan moves on’,” he concluded. “I don’t care what they say.”

Credited with creating the robust stance on Iran, Bolton is dismissive of European claims that sanctions will not work