UK WARNS TANKER OPERATORS OF RISING THREATS
▶ Tension with Iran triggers cat-and-mouse game on the oil lanes of the Gulf as experts warn naval military escorts may become the norm in area
For an indication that Iran acted deliberately to follow through on its threats to target a British oil tanker in the Arabian Gulf, the raw traffic figures for the waterway are instructive.
Of the more than 850 flagged tankers in the area just 10 are under the UK or Isle of Man ensign. The rest are ships of many nations.
After days of speculation, the frigate HMS Montrose moved alongside two British tankers on Wednesday to provide escort for the trip through the Strait of Hormuz and into the Sea of Oman.
The first Pacific Voyager passed through the narrow channel of international waters without incident.
The British Heritage was challenged, leading to the warship engaging with vessels suspected of operating under the control of the Islamic
Revolutionary Guard Corps. The skirmishing was hardly confined to the sea surface. Hassan Rouhani, Iran’s president, led a string of officials that were threatening to take action against the British in retaliation for the seizure of a fully-laden Iranian supertanker, Grace 1 off Gibraltar last week.
In something of a running commentary, the Iranian head of state noted that the Royal Navy had been deployed to accompany its shipping and taunted London as “scared” and “hopeless”. Britain’s Department of Transport has issued new guidance to British shipping about the change threat levels at sea.
Analysts believe tanker trip over-watches are now a fact of navigation in the area.
“By sending speed boats to intercept a British tanker, despite the fact that it is escorted by a British frigate, Tehran means to show that such defensive measures are quite necessary – and that British tankers should from now on be escorted or else face potentially successful attacks,” said Michael Horowitz, head of intelligence at Le Beck security and risk management consultancy.
“While the British deployment should be able to mitigate that threat, you have to wonder about the sustainability of these measures and the delays it may trigger [as it requires co-ordination between the operator and the British fleet]. Creating the impression that the current situation and current American policy towards Iran are both unsustainable is Tehran’s main goal.”
The potential for escalation from the accumulation of weaponry in one strategic chokepoint is high and rising.
Iran has sought to use it littoral coastline and the sea lanes that carry global oil supplies as a strategic asset. While the country has been starved of oil revenues and cannot match the defence budgets of western nations, it has for decades recognised the opportunities from disruption of the straits.
According to data compiled by Lloyds List Intelligence, 16.8 million barrels of the 52.9 million barrels a day of crude that moved last year was taken through Hormuz.
The next busiest sea lanes were in the Straits of Malacca and Bab Al Mandeb ranked third.
It is not the first time that wealthy western nations have had to react to Iranian aggression in the area.
Operation Earnest Will in 1987 saw the US mobilise to protect friendly shipping. In Operation Praying Mantis in 1988 the US sank more than half of the Iran surface fleet.
The tempo of Iranian disruption has been rising, culminating in a series of sabotage attacks on vessels in recent weeks. A US Navy drone was shot down by an Iranian missile in June and Washington only called off a retaliation plan as a result of a presidential invention at the last minute.
Against this backdrop fears centre on a hostage crisis if Iran seizes US or British-linked ships. In a much more benign period in 2016 the Iranians held 10 US Navy personnel after boarding their riverine craft around Farsi Island in the Gulf, and detaining the crew.
In 2007, the IRGC seized 15 British sailors and marines from patrol boats in Iraq’s Shatt Al Arab, holding them for two weeks in safe houses while diplomats haggled. They were exchanged for the release of nine Iranians held by the US.
Analysts believe military escorts are now a fact of navigation in the Arabian Gulf