Syrian allies sharpen their knives for Jumblatt

When Syrian dictator Hafez Al Assad died in 2000, the who’s who of Lebanon’s political class bowed one by one in front of his coffin in Damascus – all except Druze leader Walid Jumblatt, who walked briskly past.

Almost two decades later, the Syrian regime – now led by Hafez’s son Bashar and supported by Iran and Hezbollah – is still trying to bow Mr Jumblatt’s head. The 69-yearold scion of a Druze dynasty is regarded as one of the shrewdest and most educated political figures in the Middle East.

The latest political crisis in Lebanon has Mr Jumblatt front and centre. It had been in the making for months but burst into the open at the end of June after a shooting in the Druze heartland near Beirut killed two bodyguards of a minor Lebanese minister who is also Druze but supported by the Syrian regime. The Lebanese Cabinet has not agreed to meet since the incident, which is being manipulated by pro-Hezbollah factions and exaggerated in an attempt to finish off Mr Jumblatt, according to his supporters. In Lebanon, this does not only mean politically.

The leader of the Druze minority has accumulated a list of enemies, all allied with the Syrian regime, who might be sensing in Hezbollah’s ascendancy the perfect chance to bring about his downfall and tilt Lebanon’s balance of power further towards Iran and the Syrian regime.

Mr Jumblatt was one of the first major figures to demand the withdrawal of Syrian forces from Lebanon.

He led the protest movement known as the Cedar Revolution, which helped expel the Syrian regime forces in 2006 after a three-decade presence. Damascus later restored its influence through Hezbollah and other proxies.

He has been a thorn in Hezbollah’s side, disputing its claim that it needs to remain armed despite Israel’s withdrawal from south Lebanon in 2000 – although he has had periods of accommodation with the group.

When the Syrian war broke out in 2011, Mr Jumblatt supported the uprising as it appeared capable of bringing down a regime he saw as detrimental to Lebanon.

A proponent of non-violent political discourse since the end of Lebanon’s 1975-1990 civil war, he has consistently stood up against increasingly racist language directed at Syrian refugees, most notably by Foreign Minister Gebran Bassil, a Hezbollah ally.

Mr Jumblatt’s rivals appear to carry personal and political envy against one of the few figures in the country who has maintained a status consistent with being descended from political nobility.

Veteran Lebanese analyst Rashid Hasan says the son of the late statesman Kamal Jumblatt has a sharp political radar and ability to switch alliances for the sake of preserving the Druze community.

At least two Syrian intelligence agents have been nominally wanted by Lebanon’s toothless justice system for decades for the 1977 assassination of Kamal Jumblatt, a monumental figure who championed the Palestinian cause and had no regard for Hafez Al Assad, who had built up Palestinian proxies to undermine Yasser Arafat. For many Druze, the political demise of Mr Jumblatt would mean that their community, one of Lebanon’s smallest, could no longer punch above its weight, and endanger the delicate arrangements that ended the civil war.

At stake is the fate of fading resistance to the dominance of the Iranian and Syrian regime proxies in Lebanon.

According to a confidant, Mr Jumblatt believes the current crisis is being inflamed by the Syrian regime, which he blames for the failure of his attempt to calm tensions by handing over two Druze suspects involved in the killing.

Hezbollah’s allies want the case to go to a special judicial council where they would dictate the proceedings, opening the possibility of a show trial. Attempts to paint the shooting as an assassination attempt are a “childish jumping to conclusion”, Mr Jumblatt said.

Mr Jumblatt harks to a period in Lebanon when even rivals had grudging respect for each other, some even during the civil war.

Lebanon is no longer the primary regional chessboard for “each outside power to checkmate the other”, in the words of one Lebanese banker. But the Assad regime could be intent on pursuing Mr Jumblatt to the end.

He has indicated through his latest responses that he will only go out fighting.

Mr Jumblatt’s enemies might be sensing in Hezbollah’s ascendancy the perfect chance to bring about his downfall