Michel Aoun’s speech leaves protest movement facing an uphill struggle for change
The mass demonstrations sweeping Lebanon have hit a wall of resistance, with the political class mostly closing ranks and the Hezbollah-backed president giving no inkling of major compromise.
In his first public appearance since protests began eight days ago, President Michel Aoun suggested a government reshuffle in a televised speech on Thursday. Sunni Prime Minister Saad Hariri, who has also ignored street demands to quit, quickly endorsed the possibility.
It is a tactic much used across the Middle East in response to mass calls for change and for dignity, including during the Arab uprisings of 2010-2011, but often to little effect. Where the regimes or major elements associated with them have had a powerful outside sponsor, they have withstood the challenge from the masses.
In this regard, Lebanon is similar to Syria and Iraq in that Iran has shown its willingness to support its clients to the hilt.
Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah predicted that the demonstrations would not last long and hinted at sending out his militiamen, as he did in 2008 when the Cabinet sought to dismantle the Shiite group’s private communications network.
But today a large proportion of Shiites have joined the protest movement, although directing their wrath more towards Nabih Berri, Parliament Speaker since 1992 and head of the Amal movement, Hezbollah’s main Shiite ally.
Mr Aoun, 84, allied with Hezbollah in 2006 in a move that led him to the presidency 10 years later, having reversed his enmity towards Syria’s ruling Al Assad family.
In his speech on Thursday, Mr Aoun recycled old vows to combat corruption and hold anyone convicted of misconduct accountable. He did not mention his son-in-law, Foreign Minister Gebran Bassil, a defender of Hezbollah abroad, who is being groomed to become president.
Mr Bassil at one point was part of the energy ministry, overseeing Lebanon’s disastrous electricity infrastructure, where tens of billions of dollars have been wasted or stolen since the 1990s.
The Maronite Christian minister has been whipping up sectarian sentiment in his community as part of preparations to succeed Mr Aoun. But that may no longer be an effective political strategy in Lebanon.
Protests have been cross-sectarian, drawing Lebanese from all backgrounds.
“Removal of all [leaders], means the removal of all,” has been a common chant of demonstrators across the small country of 6.1 million.
Prominent Lebanese economist Ishac Diwan said the country is undergoing a revolution aimed at a new national identity shaped by “individuals who reject the system”.
Mr Diwan told France Culture radio that leaders in Lebanon’s confessional system can no longer escape being identified with corruption, having benefited from the state, the private sector, and dominated credit resources.
“This is the first time that this complete narrative of community representation is changing,” Mr Diwan said.
On the streets of Beirut, Mr Aoun’s speech was derided, stoking more of the abuse he and Mr Bassil are facing from Lebanese from all walks of life. But Mr Aoun showed political cunning, inviting the demonstrators to meet him while knowing that they lack leadership. Lebanese political commentator Youssef Bazzi said it will be difficult at this stage for Lebanon’s protest movement to put together a manifesto, partly owing to the depth of anger on the street.
Instead of resigning, Mr Aoun adopted a provocative stance and sought to hijack the uprising by suggesting he should be given full power to conduct a purge, according to Mr Bazzi. Mr Bazzi said the Hezbollah-Amal-Aoun axis and the backing of Iran would make it difficult for the protest movement to change the system fundamentally in the short term, pointing to Syria and Iraq as examples.
“My conviction is that the Arab uprisings will last for decades,” he told The National. “Since 2011 they have been erupting in waves, as soon as one ends, another starts.”
There has been no official comment from Iran on the upheaval in Lebanon. In Syria, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps intervened directly to preserve Bashar Al Assad when Hezbollah could not bear the burden alone.
With Hezbollah in such a powerful position domestically in terms of military capability, any role Iran plays will be much less apparent.