LEICESTER HAVE THE QUALITY FOR ANOTHER SHOT AT HISTORY
Responsible for the most unlikely success story in the Premier League, a repeat of 2016 might be a stretch but a top-four place is within their grasp, writes
It is a two-horse race. That is the consensus, anyway.
Except that, when the final whistle blows on Friday night, one of those horses could be overtaken.
The temptation is to assume Liverpool and Manchester City only have to worry about each other. Except that Pep Guardiola’s side may not even be the leading City when they kick off on Saturday. Instead, that might be Leicester.
Victory at Southampton would propel them into the top two, albeit after playing one match more.
An early season anomaly? Perhaps, but recent history proves how dangerous it is to dismiss Leicester’s chances.
It prompts the thought if there is a sequel to the most improbable sporting story of all, their 2016 title win.
They were the enormous underdogs who were forever underestimated and who finished top by 10 points.
So if anyone has the wherewithal to produce something special, to confound expectations in such extraordinary fashion, perhaps it is Leicester. Not that they are getting carried away.
Kasper Schmeichel, a remnant of the title-winning team, sounded grounded. “I think it’s a decent start, but that’s all it is at the moment: a start,” the goalkeeper said. “It’s not going to count for anything unless we keep kicking on.”
But they have already reframed the question. Initially it was if Leicester could disrupt the cartel of the top six, then if they could qualify for the Champions League.
Win at Southampton, whose home form has been wretched for two years, and they will have a five-point cushion in the top four, but with the caveat rivals would have a game in hand.
Their past shows how well they have done now. At this stage, Leicester’s immortals were one point worse off after a considerably easier fixture list.
At this point in 2015-16, they had only faced two of the previous season’s top six. Now the class of 2019-20 have played four of them, three away from home. Leicester took a point at Stamford Bridge and were seconds, and a contentious penalty decision, from doing so at Anfield.
They only underperformed at Old Trafford. There has been nothing remotely comparable to 2015’s 5-2 home thrashing by Arsenal.
The defensive record is far better. Claudio Ranieri’s Leicester conceded 17 goals in their opening nine games, prompting his change to bring in more defensive full-backs, in Christian Fuchs and Danny Simpson.
Brendan Rodgers’ side have only been breached seven times. Ben Chilwell and Ricardo Pereira are among both the best defensive and attacking full-backs in the league, Caglar Soyuncu, the internal replacement for Harry Maguire, among its most commanding centre-backs.
As Liverpool manager, Rodgers got carried away in his last Premier League title race.
His rhetoric and demeanour are more measured now. “We’ve played tough opponents,” he said this week.
“We have shown resilience and quality. For me, the nice thing is we can be better and improve.”
It is clear how and where. “The playing style is evolving, and I think we haven’t actually played brilliantly some of the times,” Schmeichel said.
At this stage, Leicester’s immortals were one point worse off after a considerably easier fixture list
Eleven teams, including Brighton and Watford, are averaging more shots per game than Leicester.
Sixteen, all bar Wolves, Sheffield United and Newcastle, have had more attempts on target. Leicester have made comparatively few efforts go a long way, which speaks to Jamie Vardy’s potency. Thirty-five players have had more shots than the Leicester forward; only three have scored more goals.
But Ayoze Perez, Demarai Gray and Harvey Barnes only have one between them. “Our wingers need to do more,” Rodgers said after Saturday’s win over Burnley.
None look capable of replicating Riyad Mahrez’s remarkable 17-goal, 11-assist campaign four years ago, exacerbating the burden on the striker. Rodgers has his Vardy, but not yet his Mahrez.
But he has a solid foundation and money to spend in January, the proceeds of Maguire’s £80 million (Dh379m) move to Manchester United.
Leicester have more consistency than most. It could be a springboard. At this stage four years ago, they embarked on a run of four straight wins. Then, however, the context was different. The favourites’ failures created a vacuum, which they filled.
But Ranieri’s team were champions with 81 points.
Last season, Liverpool were second with 97. It feels likelier Rodgers’ side get 82 or more than that history repeats itself with a second title win.