UN-led Syria peace efforts to resume with talks in Geneva
Recent events in the country leave experts sceptical about what the talks can achieve
It has taken four mediators to push Syria’s warring sides to establish a constitutional committee to salvage a crumbling political process aimed at ending the civil war.
Today, representatives from President Bashar Al Assad’s regime, the opposition and civil society are scheduled to meet in Geneva to lay out their vision for the country’s future.
UN special envoy to Syria Geir Pedersen, the fourth man in the job, and his predecessor Staffan de Mistura, led negotiations for nearly two years between all sides to “open a window of opportunity for wider political negotiations”.
But experts and officials believe recent events in the country cast doubt on what the Geneva process will deliver.
US President Donald Trump announced a troop withdrawal from north-east Syria this month that allowed Turkish forces to sweep across the border and push Kurdish militia out of the area.
The development came after a Russian-Turkish deal for a buffer zone in north-east Syria.
Mr Pedersen said he hoped the talks would offer “a sign of hope for the long-suffering Syrian people”.
“Obviously, a Constitutional Committee in itself will not change much,” Mr Pedersen told the Geneva-based Centre for Humanitarian Dialogue.
“But if handled correctly, and if there is political will, it could be a door-opener for a broader political process.”
The talks, if successful, will establish, under a UN Security Council mandate, a nationwide ceasefire and elections under UN control.
The final committee is made up of 150 individuals from the government, the opposition and civil society, who will discuss and adopt the constitutional proposals.
The UN assisted in drawing up the civil society list, which includes Syrians from a range of backgrounds. Once all sides come to an agreement, 45 participants – 15 from each of the three represented groups – will prepare the final document, while the larger body will be responsible for enforcing it.
This will pave the way for nationwide elections.
The constitutional review is a vital part of UN efforts to end the conflict, which has killed more than 370,000 people and displaced millions since erupting in 2011 with the repression of anti-government protests.
In many ways, the problem in Syria is less about the constitution than how it is put into effect, Mona Yacoubian, senior adviser at the US Institute of Peace, told The National.
“The regime has proven time and again it is unwilling to respect the most basic human rights, let alone respect basic laws or decentralise authority to various regions,” Ms Yacoubian said.
Previous UN envoys have failed to negotiate an end to Syria’s eight-year war.
The Geneva process continues to be overtaken by developments on the ground, Ms Yacoubian said.
“With the regime [through Russia] poised to take back much of the north-east, there is little incentive for it to cooperate with the process. It is hard to envision how a constitutional draft will bring peace to Syria,” she said.
Opposition members believe the success of the committee will be reliant on the regime and its allies, Russia and Iran.
Moscow and Tehran remain the most influential powers supporting the Assad regime, militarily, economically and politically.
“They have tried hard to tilt the agreement to their own needs and to the interest of the Assad regime,” opposition spokesman Yahya Al Aridi said.