GLOBAL LANDSCAPE TAKES NEW SHAPE IN AGE OF TRUMP
▶ Experts say smaller ‘power blocs’ will carve out areas of control and influence
The US will not resume its leadership role across the world and the result is a fragmented international landscape in which local powers will establish spheres of influence, a leading think tank said yesterday.
The International Institute for Strategic Studies, in London, used its annual survey to document the breakdown of the rules-based international order that was underpinned by Washington’s power and prestige.
John Chipman, the director of the IISS, said the power shift was irrevocable and that policymakers who clung to the status quo had lost their grip on events.
He said the breakdown into power blocs would benefit countries with flexible and imaginative policies that network with the strongest states to exert influence.
“A new order will emerge but the indications are that politically and possibly technologically the world will divide into separate ecosystems with their own rules and customs,” he said.
“The evolving world order is not likely to mimic past power shifts.”
While the America First approach of US President Donald Trump has done much to change the international power balance, US politicians across the political spectrum have shifted away from a broad consensus on Middle East peace, China and international trade.
China’s increasing power is one factor to take into account.
Nigel Inkster, a senior IISS adviser, said that Beijing was choosing to prioritise national sovereignty over its reformist agenda.
International institutions such as the United Nations and the World Trade Organisation have lost effectiveness amid the heightened international competition.
As a result, international law was increasingly marginalised.
“The global rules-based order, to the degree it was ever established, is now clearly deposited in the memory bank of western strategic nostalgia,” Mr Chipman said.
There are examples in which so-called medium-sized powers retained effective power even as the large states clashed.
Australia, Canada, Japan and other Asian states continuing the Trans-Pacific Partnership even as the US withdrew was held up as one example for the future.
The reconciliation of Eritrea and Ethiopia as a result of the mediation efforts of the UAE and Saudi Arabia was an example of effective reach by friendly outside powers.
“Ethiopia and Eritrea are both benefiting substantially from the peace accord as are its Gulf brokers,” an essay in the 2019 Strategic Survey said.
Political shifts are not the only factor shaping the new rules of international affairs.
Recognition of the central role of influence operations in a world in which outcomes are not fixed is as important as the establishment of a balance of power or observance of international rules. The advent of 5G sparked a power struggle over China’s role in technological innovation and many countries want to forge sovereign internet spheres.
Europe has sought to use its regulatory clout to withstand external technological superiority or influence operations from Russia and others.
The radical agenda led by Iran and Muslim Brotherhood factions makes clear the importance of containment policies and the adoption of deradicalisation policies by governments across the world.