Iran leaves region with little option but to defend itself, analysts say

Policy specialists from the Gulf yesterday dismissed western criticism of a more assertive foreign policy by the region’s Arab powers, saying they aim to boost deterrence against Iran while maintaining scope for negotiations.

At the Abu Dhabi Strategic Debate, policy experts from the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and Kuwait said that fundamental compromise remained the only way in the long run to neutralise what they regard as the Iranian threat.

In its sixth year, the Abu Dhabi Strategic Debate, organised by the Emirates Policy Centre, is a major gathering of specialists from the region and farther afield.

Minister of State for Foreign Affairs Dr Anwar Gargash told the opening session on Sunday that a deal for a “new, more stable” order that tackles Iran’s nuclear programme, ballistic missiles and regional action was still possible through collective diplomacy.

When it comes to the nuclear deal, the countries involved “should not fall for the false choice between war on the one hand or a flawed deal on the other,” Dr Gargash said.

In a session on Arab Gulf capabilities, the speakers rejected European policies that, in pursuit of maintaining the 2015 nuclear deal, sought accommodation with Tehran regardless of Iranian action in the region.

But neither did they express confidence that the US was serious about curbing what Washington regards as Iran’s expansion in the Middle East.

They said Gulf countries have no choice but to strengthen their defensive military capabilities and keep advancing their economies, as well as the management of their oil resources, further widening the development gap with Iran, although there remain deep differences among the GCC on how to deal with the regime.

The speakers said the pushback against Iran had prevented Tehran’s proxies from gaining more territory in Yemen.

Gulf backing for the new post Omar Al Bashir arrangement in Sudan helped curb the security influence that Iran had carved out with the regime, they said, and the uprisings in Iraq and Lebanon showed the failures of Iran’s Shiite proxies.

Saad Al Ajmi, a former Kuwaiti information minister who teaches at Kuwait University, said the region is divided between hawks and doves on Iran.

Outside this equation, he said, is Oman, which he characterised as having adopted a policy of “self-introversion”.

Mr Al Ajmi said even the doves should not underestimate that Iranian foreign policy has sought to overextend the influence of Shiite communities who are an overall minority in the region.

The Gulf, said Emirati political scientist Abdulkhaleq Abdulla, has transformed in recent years from being highly susceptible to outside influence to exerting external influence in its own right.

“We do not need lessons from outside. We know Iran. We have been trying to cohabit with Iran since 1979,” Mr Abdulla said.

He dismissed any hope that reformists could influence foreign policy in Tehran.

“Those who do not know this will not know how to deal with Iran,” he said.

Mr Abdulla said that Iranian security threats justified military spending in the region and the alliance with the US.

Ebtesam Al Ketbi, head of the Emirates Policy Centre, said that the attack on Saudi Aramco oil plants in September showed that Iran has little qualms about going on the offensive.

She said Iran’s focus on projecting military prowess was misguided, with the focus in Arab Gulf countries on promoting technology and an open economy as well as yielding tangible gains for its inhabitants.

This should entice Iranian leaders “to move from a zero sum game to a win-win formula”, she said.

We do not need lessons from outside. We know Iran. We have been trying to cohabit with Iran since 1979 ABDULKHALEQ ABDULLA Political scientist