Turkey crisis over Kurds threatens to spoil Nato birthday party

Leaders of Nato states gathering at a hotel outside London this week will face a crisis centred on Turkey, which has gained a reputation as the alliance’s most troublesome member in recent years.

The country’s president,

Recep Tayyip Erdogan, has threatened to veto plans for the defence of Poland, Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia unless the 29-member bloc provides more support for Turkish aims in Syria.

In particular, Ankara wants its Nato allies to declare the People’s Protection Units (YPG), a Syrian Kurdish militia the US allied with to fight ISIS, a terrorist organisation.

The demand centres on the ties between the YPG and the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), which has waged a 35year insurgency in Turkey that caused tens of thousands of deaths. The PKK is considered a terrorist group by the US and European Union as well as Turkey. In October, Turkey launched a military operation in north-east Syria to drive the YPG, which led a US-backed

coalition known as the Syrian Democratic Forces, away from its southern border.

Critics said the operation threatened efforts to stamp out ISIS in Syria. Senators in the US called for sanctions on Turkey and its suspension or expulsion from Nato. Other alliance members such as France, Germany and Norway halted the sale of military hardware to Ankara.

At the same time, Turkey’s ties with Russia are growing.

As well as co-operation in Syria – even though Ankara opposes Russian client Bashar Al Assad – Mr Erdogan has gone ahead with the purchase of Russian-made S-400 missiles.

Despite threats to sanction Turkey over the air-defence system, which arrived in July and was tested last week, the only reaction from the West was Washington’s decision to remove Turkey from the F-35 stealth fighter programme.

How Nato will handle Turkey’s demands is likely to be a main focus of the summit, which marks the alliance’s 70th anniversary.

“I think it’s a bluff that might work,” said Kamal Alam, a military analyst in the UK specialising in Turkey and Syria, referring to Ankara’s threat to veto the Baltic defence plan.

“Turkey now feels confident that its alliance with Russia, and to a lesser degree China, is such that they have the upper hand and Europe needs them more than they need Europe with regard to both Nato and non-Nato issues.”

The latter include the nearly 4 million Syrian refugees hosted by Turkey. Mr Erdogan has repeatedly threatened to “open the gates” to Europe for the refugees while seeking European funding to create a “safe zone” for them in northeast Syria.

Aykan Erdemir, a former Turkish opposition MP and a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defence of Democracies in Washington, said Turkey’s relations with Nato were “becoming increasingly transactional as Erdogan’s tactic of playing a spoiler role within the alliance to extract concessions undermines trust between Ankara and its allies”.

Turkey has long complained of US support for the YPG and says it was forced to buy Russia’s S-400s as the US would not offer a suitable deal for its Patriot missile system.

Turkey’s operation in Syria has widespread public support.

“Nato made a decision that any members that come under terrorist attack, then all members will come together against that attack,” said Hursit Tolon, a retired commander of Turkey’s First Army.

“Turkey has been fighting for decades but has not seen this support. Whatever people say, the YPG is a terrorist organisation. Therefore Turkey is doing the right thing.”

According to Mr Alam, Turkey’s move towards Russia is a result of Moscow’s willingness to listen to Ankara’s concerns in Syria.

“As we have seen in the Astana process, Russia and Turkey, despite their political differences over Assad, have worked together,” he said.

Turkey has the alliance’s second-largest military after the US and has participated in Nato missions in Afghanistan and the Balkans.

“Turkey is a loyal member of Nato and one of the biggest powers in Nato,” said Unal Atabay, who leads the Terrorism and Counter-Terrorism Research Centre at the 21st Century Turkey Institute in Ankara. “It has fulfilled all its obligations so it has the right to ask Nato to support its interests on security. It’s important for the future of Nato that it does not act like an organisation that is ruled by just a few countries, but for all its members.”

Turkey’s disputes with other Nato members include renewed tension over gas drilling off Cyprus, which has resulted in the EU putting a sanctions framework in place against Turkey, as well as Ankara’s reluctance to sever ties with Iran.

Ismail Hakki Pekin, a former head of Turkish military intelligence who is now a senior figure in the left-wing nationalist Vatan Party, predicted a breakthrough in the standoff with Nato because “no country wants to be seen as the country that is harming the structure and operation of Nato”.

Turkey has Nato’s second-largest military and has participated in missions in Afghanistan and the Balkans