EGYPT-ETHIOPIA DISPUTE OVER NILE DAM AT CRITICAL STAGE
▶ Addis Ababa plans to start filling reservoir in July, but Cairo and Khartoum do not agree
Ethiopia yesterday said it would not wait for an agreement with downstream nations Egypt and Sudan before it started in July to fill the enormous reservoir behind the Nile dam it has been building since 2011.
Egypt, which fears disaster if its vital share of the river’s water is reduced, has protested against Ethiopia’s decision and said the landlocked Horn of Africa nation showed contempt for international laws governing the use of transnational rivers.
Both Egypt and Ethiopia wrote to the United Nations Security Council to blame the other for the failure of nearly a decade of negotiations to strike an agreement on the dam and the reservoir.
Sudan, meanwhile, appeared to have abandoned at least some of its perceived bias in favour of Ethiopia’s stand on the dispute, joining Egypt last week in turning down an offer by Ethiopia to negotiate an interim agreement to govern the first filling of the reservoir.
Its decision coincided with growing voices in Sudan that questioned the soundness of the dam and warned that much of the country would be flooded if the dam near its border collapsed under pressure.
Egypt also has some misgivings about the safety of the dam and said that Ethiopia did not adequately study the possible risks involved.
Ethiopia has cast the dam as a national symbol that has united culturally and ethnically diverse Ethiopians. Much of this was thought to be an attempt to pander to voters in an election year and to appeal to their patriotism by rekindling a war of words with Egypt that began after the collapse of US-sponsored negotiations in February.
The standoff has given rise to speculation on whether Egypt will take military action to stop Ethiopia from acting unilaterally, although President Abdel
Fattah El Sisi, a former army chief, has stated his preference for a negotiated settlement. He said that Egypt would never accept a de facto situation about the Nile water and that the issue was an existential one.
Egypt’s 100 million people depend on the Nile for more than 90 per cent of their water. Any significant reduction in its share of the river’s water would put hundreds of thousands out of work and threaten its food security.
“The prevailing spirit in Egypt now is of a combative nature,” analyst Abdel Bari Attwan wrote last week. “Egyptian officials, especially those in the military, are extremely worried. That’s why the next few weeks could witness some fateful and painful decisions because it is not possible, nor should it be, for the Egyptian people to go hungry or see their water security threatened.”
Egypt and Ethiopia do not share a land border, but Cairo has in recent years spent billions of dollars on weapons and hardware that significantly extend its military reach beyond its borders.
However, any military action by Egypt would be difficult to justify under international law and a negotiated settlement might be its only option. Cairo said it understood Ethiopia’s economic need for the hydroelectric dam but wanted an agreement that will minimise the impact on its water supply.
Ethiopia has called for negotiations to resume, but Egypt was likely to insist on an agreed timeframe to prevent Addis Ababa from drawing them out.
Cairo would also like to have negotiations start from where talks left off in February, when it was the only party to approve a draft deal brokered by the US and the World Bank.
Egypt might also settle for an interim agreement on the first filling of the reservoir, but with added language outlining what needs to be agreed on in a comprehensive pact.
It wanted the filling of the reservoir to be staggered over up to seven years, and a joint mechanism to deal with possible drought.
Cairo also wanted Ethiopia to release about 46 billion cubic metres of water annually; Ethiopia is reportedly offering much less.
Egypt will be looking to continuing US involvement in any negotiations, although this may be difficult given the preoccupation of President Donald Trump’s administration with the coronavirus outbreak.
“Egypt remains committed to the need to reach an agreement,” said Hany Raslan, an expert on African affairs from Egypt’s Al Ahram Centre for Political and Strategic Studies.
“The ball is now with Ethiopia, which must realise that the interests of nations must not be messed with.”
The Nile dam has become wrapped up in nationalism in Cairo and Addis Ababa