Sweden’s Covid-19 chief says he would change response
Sweden’s chief coronavirus adviser has conceded that his country may have been too relaxed in its approach to curbing the outbreak.
Dr Anders Tegnell told a local radio station that if Covid-19 struck again “we would end up doing in between what Sweden did and what the rest of the world did”.
His words were pounced on by critics of the Swedish method, which accepts an initial high death toll before herd immunity is achieved.
The approach of voluntary social distancing rules and allowing crowds of 50 to gather goes against much of the rest of world’s policy of lockdowns enforced by law.
But Sweden said it recognised early on that the consequence of a lockdown would be an initial lower death toll and a devastated economy.
At this juncture no one can say for certain who is right. Only in a year or so will the facts prove whether Sweden took a reckless gamble or displayed great foresight and fortitude.
There are reasons why critics have been so opposed to the Swedish way. Some, including neighbouring countries, regard Sweden as selfish and say that if Stockholm is successful it will be at least partly because other countries locked down.
But there is also a political point. The large death toll that could result from a policy of pursuing herd immunity – it was estimated at 350,000 in Britain – was considered unacceptable by critics.
There is also an argument that Sweden should be regarded as a control experiment.
“What would have happened if Britain, America and Italy did not lock down as well?” asked Dr Ilan Kelman, professor of disasters and health at University College London. “The fact that other countries locked down helped Sweden. The point is that we are all in this together, the whole world.”
It is possible that globally, either a vaccine or herd immunity comes first. With an immense cash prize on offer for the winner of the vaccine race, it appears that one could well be available by the autumn.
If not, the virus will be properly tested for the first time over the winter, when it is likely to become more virulent and possibly mutate.
If so, the second wave of infection and deaths could be high. But will countries where economies have already taken a battering be so eager to impose more lockdowns? What will Sweden look like in November?
While Sweden’s death rate is high – more than 4,500 fatalities out of a population of 10 million – it is not significantly different from that of Britain or France.
The current slackening curve of infections could mean the country will achieve herd immunity more slowly than thought. It was expected that the Stockholm district would reach a 60 per cent rate of infection by this month. That now appears unlikely.
If the global vaccine effort fails then the infection will spread and nature will possibly ensure that herd immunity takes care of the rest. Only then will Sweden be able to say it chose the right path.