CONCERN AS ‘BUY NOW, PAY WHENEVER’ CULTURE BECOMES GLOBAL SHOPPING PHENOMENON
▶ Rising subscriber numbers because of shift to online purchasing may result in increase in bad loans
Companies, investors and analysts agree that young people with stimulus money in their wallets are driving sales
Browsing online recently, Jessica Friend spotted a pair of Ray-Ban sunglasses she liked, but the price tag made the 30-year-old US resident think twice.
What persuaded her to click “buy”, Ms Friend says, was the short-term credit offered by Afterpay, which split the $260 (Dh955) payment into four interest-free instalments.
Afterpay is among a handful of alternative credit companies which offer small loans, mostly to online shoppers, and make their money by charging merchants a 4 per cent to 6 per cent commission.
These buy-now-pay-later firms have benefited from a shift to online shopping during the coronavirus crisis in countries including the US, where state aid has also boosted retail sales.
“I’m more inclined to use them because they make it easier to afford to get the things I want all at once ... and when I want to splurge on something,” Ms Friend says of the loans.
In the UAE, recent FinTech start-ups offering monthly instalment plans or delayed payments for purchases as small as a new pair of shoes include postpay, Tabby and Spotii.
While postpay and Tabby unveiled their services earlier this year and have each partnered with about 20 retailers so far, Spotii went live in April and has 11 retailers on its site.
Across the globe, investors in concepts such as these now expect shoppers will stay away from stores as coronavirus cases rise again in several countries, boosting business for BNPL operators.
But swelling subscriber numbers may also increase bad loans, mainly among first-time users who are more likely to default. As job losses rise and government aid ebbs, the business model will face its first real test in a recession.
“Much still hinges on any virus second waves and government wherewithal to keep boosting demand,” says Andrew Mitchell of Ophir Asset Management, which owns shares in Afterpay, based in Melbourne. Afterpay’s market value has risen to $12.55 billion from $100-million-plus four years ago.
While a move to online shopping was under way before the pandemic, the shift has accelerated under movement restrictions. Afterpay signed up more than a million new active US customers between March and early May, taking its overall base there to 9 million.
Meanwhile retailers desperate to move merchandise have also become more receptive to partnerships with BNPL companies, which unlike credit cards or mortgages, make loans instantly.
Klarna, Europe’s biggest FinTech start-up, says that since March, enquiries from retailers who may want to partner with it jumped by 20 per cent on average globally.
With 7.9 million US subscribers, Sweden’s Klarna has since signed up outdoor gear maker The North Face, Disney’s streaming service and cosmetics retailer Sephora.
Most of the growth has been in higher-margin discretionary spending categories such as fashion and fitness gear, says Puneet Dikshit, a McKinsey partner in New York. He expects the sector to generate $7bn to $8bn in volumes this year in the US, growing by more than 150 per cent annually.
Although fears of credit losses sparked a sector-wide sell-off in March, the entry of big tech investors and rising subscriber numbers have since supported a sharp recovery, with stocks at record highs.
The pandemic forced most companies to tighten their risk settings, which they say may push up loan rejection rates, although Afterpay, Klarna, Zip and Sezzle declined to provide specific numbers.
“BNPL operators can turn off the taps and quickly throttle down growth if repayment risks increase,” Mr Mitchell says. While Afterpay, with bad loans totalling 1 per cent of its loan book as of March, changed its requirements so that customers had to pay a quarter of their loan upfront, co-founder Nick Molnar says rejection rates were roughly in line with the start of the year.
Mr Molnar says an overwhelming majority of Afterpay customers, whose average transaction value is A$150 (Dh383), pay back on time, while loans on new purchases are denied to those who do not.
Although some brokerages expect Afterpay to turn a profit by 2022, rising costs to finance expansion and credit losses that eat into receivables are likely to mean BNPLs, which operate on thin margins, remain unprofitable for some time.
For Klarna, credit losses more than doubled in the first three months of the year to about 0.7 per cent of underlying sales as it expanded in Europe and the US, where regulation of the sector is almost non-existent.
Only California has said BNPL operators need a licence, and fined some for lending without one.
In Australia, where the industry first took off on the back of easy funding, the corporate regulator is set to release a follow-up report this year to one it issued in 2018 raising concerns about users becoming overextended. It will also call for BNPLs to be regulated in line with other credit services.
Companies, investors and analysts agree that young people with stimulus money in their wallets are driving sales. BNPL shoppers that Reuters spoke to were all under 35 and bought household items, as well as skincare products and clothes.
“The vast majority of our customers have income levels of under $75,000, so I would say the majority probably have a stimulus cheque,” says Charlie Youakim, chief executive of Sezzle, one of the smaller companies.
The younger demographic is harder to assess because they lack credit history. This means most companies use algorithms to run real-time eligibility checks and assess risk of default.
“Our internal engine assesses risk taking various parameters into consideration which also will include consumer payment history, what is being purchased and is combined with varying third-party data sources and authentication solutions,” says Klarna spokeswoman Aoife Houlihan.
Sydney-based Zip, with bad debts of just over 2 per cent of receivables, says it assesses shoppers’ public information and credit scores.
About one in 100 customers is late with payments each month, says the company’s spokesman Matthew Abbott. Zip recently tightened eligibility rules, leading to higher rejection rates, he added.