Cautious Mexico sits on the fence as ‘legal issues’ dog US succession

After years of close ties with US President Donald Trump, Mexico must now reshape its complex relations with the US under Joe Biden, the president-elect, including on the central issues of trade and immigration.

The country’s awkward position was underscored by President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador’s reluctance to congratulate Mr Biden while Mr Trump is still mounting legal challenges.

The left-wing populist said he would wait for all legal issues in the US election to be resolved.

“We don’t want to be imprudent. We don’t want to act lightly,” Mr Lopez Obrador said.

“We have a very good relationship with the two candidates,” the Mexican leader said, as congratulations for Mr Biden and Kamala Harris, the vice president-elect, poured in from other world leaders.

Mr Trump sparked anger during his 2016 election campaign when he called some Mexican migrants rapists and drug dealers, and promised to build a wall across the southern US border.

Even so, Mr Lopez Obrador maintained cordial relations with Mr Trump, and experts say that Mr Biden will bring a different set of challenges for Mexico.

“Trump’s anti-Mexican rhetoric is very unpleasant, but in fact, there were important agreements,” said Miguel Angel Jimenez, an analyst at the Mexican Council on Foreign Relations.

“The relationship with the Democrats has always been cold and Biden could keep more distance.”

In the past, Mexico gained more from Republican administrations, such as the immigration amnesty granted by Ronald Reagan and the Nafta free-trade agreement negotiated under George H W Bush, Mr Jimenez said.

Mr Lopez Obrador’s cautious reaction to Mr Biden’s win reflects his close relationship with Mr Trump and the fact that the Republican president still has weeks left in office, he said.

“It’s an unpleasant situation for the Mexican government,” Mr Jimenez said.

The Mexican leader chose to visit Mr Trump in the US in July on his first foreign trip since taking office.

Mr Lopez Obrador’s close ties with Mr Trump mean his defeat could be a political setback, said Gabriela Siller, an analyst at Banco Base.

“Biden already omitted Mexico when congratulating Latin American countries celebrating their independence” anniversaries in September, she said.

Although Mr Biden is unlikely to make any radical policy announcements concerning Mexico, his victory could still have repercussions, particularly in trade, analysts said.

The renegotiation of the trade agreement between the US, Canada and Mexico was the climax of a complicated relationship with Mr Trump.

The future of the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement, which entered into force in July, replacing Nafta, is a major concern for the Mexican authorities as Mr Biden prepares to move into the White House.