Europe relieved at Biden’s Nato policy but Britain fears his approach to Brexit
With the election of Joe Biden, European leaders are anticipating a renewed emphasis on the transatlantic relationship in US foreign policy.
Four years of tensions between Washington and another Trump administration could have damaged Nato but a Biden presidency is set to save the organisation.
“I was of the view that four more years of the Trump presidency might kill Nato as an effective alliance because of the strain that he was putting on Nato’s relationships, at a time when the Europeans are struggling anyway,” said Prof Michael Clarke of Royal United Services Institute.
Mr Trump allegedly requested during an Oval Office discussion to withdraw from Nato, according to Dr Dana Allin of the International Institute for Strategic Studies. “There was a real chance that in a second term he would have done that,” he said.
Nathalie Tocci, special adviser to the EU’s foreign policy chief, Josep Borrell, said Mr Trump was the first US president to question Nato’s collective defence pact and treated the EU as a trade adversary.
“Under a Biden administration, much of that nightmare is gone,” she wrote in a research report. “The US commitment to Nato will be reaffirmed, and transatlantic discussions over European defence will veer away from the mercantilist obsession with trade imbalances and towards a healthier US concern about European risk and responsibility sharing and the resilience of Nato.”
The calculation for London in approaching the new administration is clouded by the country’s Brexit talks with the EU. Prime Minister Boris Johnson risks an early dispute with the US president- elect over Britain’s potential breach of international law that could put Northern Ireland’s Good Friday peace deal at risk.
As part of Brexit negotiations, the UK prime minister introduced an Internal Markets Bill that would allow Britain to override export rules in its Withdrawal Agreement with the EU for goods travelling from Britain to Northern Ireland.
Although the EU and Mr Biden regard this as a threat to stability in Northern Ireland and a breach of an international treaty, Mr Johnson’s team sees it as a safety net to protect British goods if no trade agreement is struck with Europe by the end of this year.
Alan Mendoza, the head of the Henry Jackson Society think tank, told The National that although Mr Biden will stand firm over Ireland, he will find other areas to co-operate with the UK.
“I do believe that Mr Biden is serious about Irish borders, and where there will be a situation where if he felt was compromised, he will stand on the side of Ireland, not on the side of the UK,” Dr Mendoza said.
Britain hosting the Cop26 Climate Change conference next year means it is possible that Mr Johnson will be in complete alignment with the Democrat administration on international environmental policy.
“I think that you’re getting some clues obviously with the desire to push for climate change agreements” Dr Mendoza said.
UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson risks an early dispute with the US president- elect