England’s streets tell tale of two national coronavirus lockdowns
England’s second lockdown is being ignored by much of the public, mobility data suggests.
The first lockdown in March resulted in a fall in general movement to less than 10 per cent of usual levels.
Last weekend, as the second lockdown began, that fell to about 28 per cent, according to the Citymapper Mobility Index. Apple’s Mobility Trends Report showed a similar pattern.
The data was matched by scenes in towns and cities as high streets remained busy, more shops stayed open and beauty spots were full of people taking their recommended exercise.
The latest lockdown is not as draconian as its predecessor – school and universities are open, restaurants are allowed to operate a takeaway service and there is no demand on vulnerable people to shield.
Many businesses, better prepared to be coronavirus safe, have kept their offices open.
The UK data also revealed that while there was a slight dip in mobility in the days leading up to the start of second lockdown, and during the lockdown weekend, the dip paled when compared to the plunge in movement during the first lockdown.
Robert Dingwall, professor of sociology at Nottingham Trent University, said there were markedly different attitudes to compliance under the latest phase of restrictions compared to the first.
This was in part a result of a legacy of controversies over senior political and public figures who were widely seen to have flouted the rules the first time.
“Authority figures did not adhere to [the first lockdown]. They told us what to do and then people in charge did not obey the measures,” he said.
Prof Dingwall also cited the nature of the coronavirus as a reason for the reluctance to lock down a second time.
“There is a big difference between Covid and flu,” he said. “If this had been a flu pandemic, we would have known how to make vaccines and people could have been given a very clear time limit as to how long the privations would last.”
On March 23, the first day of the first lockdown, movement in London was at 9 per cent of its usual. On November 5, the
first day of the second lockdown, movement in London was at 28 per cent of its usual.
In other words, London’s streets were more than three times busier on the first day of the latest lockdown than at the start of the first one in March.
Data from retail analyst Springboard showed that footfall was 15 per cent lower on the first day of this lockdown than on March 23, but 79.6 per cent higher on Friday compared with March 24.
More retail footfall on the first day of the first lockdown can be attributed to panic buying, which has not been a factor
this time, said Springboard insights director Diane Wehrle.
On subsequent days the trend was reversed. The low point of the year-on-year drop in footfall during the first lockdown came on the first Saturday when it fell by 87 per cent. The average fall this time has been 64 per cent.
Mobility and retail trends are the symptoms of a far broader lockdown phenomenon.
Heather Widdows, professor of global ethics at the University of Birmingham, believed the issue of consent was in play.
“If we think about consenting we have to think about being informed,” she told The National. “You need to know what the risks and benefits are, and people are getting mixed messages.
“Compare it to March when the kids were off school – it was really obvious what [the government] was trying to do.
“Now kids are going to school on public transport and effectively have year-group size bubbles.
“It’s clear [the government] is making it up as it goes along and the public knows this.”
The information vacuum was leading to a sense of mutiny, Prof Widdows said.
Dr Ilan Kelman, of the Institute for Risk and Disaster Reduction at University College London, echoed that point.
“Authority figures did not adhere to [the first lockdown]. They told us what to do and then people in charge did not obey the measures.”
Prof Dingwall felt that there will be a further fraying of compliance.
Attempts to make people comply through fear, so successful the first time, may be made more difficult by the news yesterday that Pfizer’s coronavirus vaccine has tested at up to 90 per cent effective.