IAEA’s Iran deal keeps diplomacy route open

A last-minute deal that would allow the UN’s nuclear watchdog some access to Iran’s plants means a diplomatic solution to tensions with Tehran remains a possibility, analysts said.

While yesterday Iran went ahead with reducing co-operation with the International Atomic Energy Agency, an agreement reached by its chief, Rafael Grossi, during a visit at the weekend will allow some monitoring for three months.

The agreement came as hope was renewed that US President Joe Biden could salvage the 2015 nuclear deal agreed to between world powers and Iran.

Iran has repeatedly broken the accord in recent years after Mr Biden’s predecessor, Donald Trump, withdrew from it and renewed sanctions on the country.

The Iranian Parliament passed a law in December that demanded some inspections by the IAEA be suspended if the US did not lift sanctions, which the government in Tehran said needed to happen for it to return to the 2015 deal.

The three-month deal with the IAEA angered Iranian hardliners, who said it broke the law.

“What we have is a technical understanding that provides breathing space for the political actors to find a political solution,” Laura Rockwood, executive director of the Vienna-based Open Nuclear Network campaign group, told an online seminar organised by the European Leadership network.

Kelsey Davenport, director for non-proliferation policy at the Washington-based Arms Control Association, said the deal “staved off a crisis that threatened to kill” the 2015 agreement.

“It should maintain the political space for the United States and Iran to co-ordinate a return to full compliance of the deal,” Ms Davenport said.

While it will help the IAEA to have some understanding of what is going on in Iran’s nuclear facilities, she said any reduction in monitoring was still “very concerning” and “will fuel speculation that Iran is engaged in illicit activities”.

“From a risk perspective, the technical arrangement on monitoring is a short-term fix that keeps the window open for restoring full implementation of the nuclear deal,” Ms Davenport said.

“So, I think it is imperative that the US and Iran don’t squander this three-month period – because reversing Iran’s breaches of the JCPoA that are upcoming will be more difficult, if not impossible,” she said, referring to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, the formal name of the 2015 deal.

The temporary solution will lead to the suspension of the additional protocol, which allowed the IAEA to carry out snap inspections at sites not declared by member states.

It also means the agency will not be able to access recordings at Iran’s sites that were installed to monitor compliance.

The IAEA will continue to monitor Iran’s declared sites for up to three months.

The EU’s foreign affairs chief, Josep Borrell, suggested a possible breakthrough over a return to the nuclear deal or lifting of sanctions could be on the horizon.

“I can tell you that intense diplomatic contacts are ongoing, including with the US,” he said.

“As [nuclear deal] co-ordinator, it is my job to help to create the space for diplomacy and to find a solution … and I hope at the next stage there will be news.”

Nuclear watchdog has given Iran and world powers time to revive the 2015 agreement