The uncertain future of jobs in the Middle East

▶ There will be new chances after Covid-19, but the resilience of workers is going to be tested

According to a study by Knight Frank, a property consultancy, the Middle East will have 25 per cent more ultrahigh-net-worth individuals in the next five years. Part of the figure is attributable to the quickening pace of diversification strategies adopted by various – though not all – governments in the region.

While more millionaires and billionaires can be a symptom of economic success, it cannot eliminate the impact of structural flaws in a number of the region’s countries, such as extreme inequality. A rising tide lifts all boats, goes a once-popular saying among economists. As the political and economic quakes of the years since the 2008 financial crisis have shown around the world, however, a tide that rises too unevenly is at risk of becoming a dangerous tsunami.

The Middle East’s disproportionately young population is something of a double-edged sword. In business-friendly countries, up-and-coming entrepreneurs and workers can prosper to great economic benefit. In nations that suffer from widespread corruption, economic inequality and limited education, the frustrated energy of young people can express itself through disaffection and anger. The Middle East, of course, contains countries at both extremes, with people and ideas moving frequently between them.

The dynamism of the region’s job markets has been facing a real test. Covid-19 is leaving much upturned. Depending on a nation’s business environment, this will either present opportunity or ruin.

This is not limited to the Middle East. A report from management consultancy McKinsey says that one in 16 workers, across eight countries surveyed (none in the Middle East), will have to look for new employment as a result of the pandemic. Many are opting for “safer” sectors. In the UK, student applications for degrees such as medicine and computer programming are rising sharply.

The flipside of the report’s findings are perhaps more surprising, given the huge economic impact of successive lockdowns: 15 out of 16 employment opportunities are predicted to survive.

We should not find excessive comfort in these figures. Before the virus, the nature of employment was already changing, in a manner that required workers to become more adaptable than before. Rapid technological development, a booming AI sector and digitisation may destroy a number of jobs, even as they create others.

The skills that land people work are ever more niche. Education is struggling to create curriculums that match the pace at which modern understanding develops, often making syllabuses obsolete.

In the Middle East, the broader truths presented by McKinsey’s report are only becoming more relevant as the region advances. The continued rise of ultra-rich people is a testament to the Middle East’s possession of a talented, entrepreneurial class that understands what the future looks like. But the pressure is on policymakers to ensure that they do not reach it alone. The rest of society must receive help as it adapts to a new reality, so that it can thrive during the inevitable change to come.