Europeans fear complacency as outbreaks grip continent once more
Two weeks ago, Dr Gianluca Pescaroli was drinking coffee in the Italian university city of Bologna, watching crowds of its many students enjoy the sunshine and freedom. Some wore masks, some did not.
“It’s happening again,” the lecturer in disaster reduction said to his wife. “In two weeks, we will be back in lockdown.”
As Europe hurtles into its third coronavirus wave, a new round of curfews and restrictions is being enforced. The outbreak comes amid a stumbling vaccination programme and bitter words with drugmaker AstraZeneca and the UK about delivery schedules.
The continent is under assault from at least three Covid-19 variants, each more virulent and deadlier than the early form of the virus.
Dr Ilan Kelman, professor of disasters and health at University College London, says governments must take a “very cautious” approach.
“I’m extremely concerned about the horror of the pandemic in Europe, which now has a major problem,” he said.
“We need a lockdown, even with people’s tempers fraying – which is understandable – but the fact that restrictions are not being fully implemented in the UK or the rest of Europe is very concerning.”
Prof Graeme Ackland of the University of Edinburgh told The National the EU’s death toll, which the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control says has reached almost 900,000, may hit 1.5 million this year.
The forecast is predicated on the bloc entering a strict lockdown and the vaccination programme progressing at its current pace. That may be hampered by public sentiment.
A YouGov poll published yesterday suggests that trust across Europe in the AstraZeneca vaccine’s safety plunged to its lowest yet after concern was raised over whether it could cause blood clots. In Germany, France, Italy and Spain, members of the public surveyed were more likely to consider it unsafe than safe.
With the UK, South African and Brazilian strains now gripping the continent, infection rates are soaring. Fear is growing that it will experience a wave similar to Britain’s in January, when Covid-19 deaths rose from 74,000 to 106,000.
Britain reported a 7 per cent drop to 5,300 new infections a day last week, down from its high of 60,000 in mid-January. Deaths and infections have plummeted in Portugal which, like the UK, entered a strict lockdown in January.
Prof Ackland said such coronavirus strains will be largely responsible for devastating new surges.
“Sadly, this will be just as infectious in Europe,” he told The National. “And the Europeans don’t seem to be publishing or measuring the different strains they are getting.”
Quite how bad it will be depends on the success of restrictions and vaccination.
“It really depends on how much of a lockdown there is in Europe,” Prof Ackland said. “They will have a fairly high coverage of vaccination but this summer might be the last really big wave of death. Then in the winter there’s enough time for another sizeable wave, which would take us to 1.5 million deaths, maybe. It’s very, very dependent on what actions the governments take.”
Some countries are already taking steps. France, Poland and Germany rapidly introduced new restrictions. But others, such as Portugal and Denmark, are easing theirs.
That might change as the third wave takes hold. Germany, where the UK strain is now dominant, reported a 49 per cent rise to 12,700 cases a day in the past 10 days. It is expected to extend its lockdown.
Poland recorded a 59 per cent rise in cases to about 21,000 a day in the same period, and in France, daily infections rose to more than 30,000, a 40 per cent rise. Last week, tougher restrictions were brought in for the Paris region after it failed to stem increasing case numbers.
Guislaine David, spokeswoman for a French teachers’ union, said the variant first discovered in south-east England was increasingly being found among pupils.
“In France, the authorities are ignoring the role of schools in the spread of the epidemic, despite the fact that it is recognised by scientists,” she said.
The union wants better protection measures introduced in schools and for teachers to be immunised as a priority.
Some parents in France set up the group Ecole et familles oubliees – School and Forgotten Families – campaigning for better safety measures.
“French schools are unsafe,” said group member Elisa. She said she despairs at the limited testing in place, the lack of social distancing measures and lack of proper ventilation in school buildings. Elisa said face masks were made mandatory but only after parents fought for their introduction.
“We are worried, angry, furious and frustrated by this situation,” she said.
“Government guidelines and their application are clearly negligent and leave everyone unprotected.”
Sweden took a different path, eschewing the lockdowns introduced across much of Europe.
Stockholm resident Pernilla Nilheim said the comparative liberty of the last year made her happy to live there.
“We have hope for the vaccination to really get started. The Swedish government said that before midsummer it should be done for all of us, but now with the stop of the AstraZeneca vaccine and with delays in general, this will not happen.”
In the two weeks since Dr Pescaroli was drinking coffee in Bologna, a significant rise in cases to 22,600 a day was recorded, as was a 23 per cent increase in daily deaths, to 394. He believes it will only get worse.
“The lockdown has come again but how we survive this really will depend on how much people are fatigued by complying with the rules.”
That restrictions are not being fully implemented in the UK or the rest of Europe is very concerning
DR ILAN KELMAN
University College London