Words flow like water, but resolution to Nile dam dispute no closer
Aresolution of the Nile dam dispute between Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia is further away than before after uncompromising comments by officials this week, analysts said.
The latest war of words broke out less than three months before Ethiopia is scheduled to carry out a second filling of the reservoir at the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam on the Blue Nile despite warnings by Egypt and Sudan not to do so before a comprehensive agreement on running it is reached.
Egypt, which depends on the Nile for more than 90 per cent of its fresh water, said the dam will cut its share.
Sudan has a similar concern, and fears the effect on its own Nile dams and the threat of flooding.
Ethiopia has largely addressed the dispute as a matter of national sovereignty.
It claims ownership of the entire Blue Nile, whose source is in its highlands and contributes more the 80 per cent of the Nile’s water.
It refuses to enter a legally binding agreement on the operation and filling of the dam, preferring guidelines and rejecting international mediation efforts.
Egypt and Sudan have courted the international community as Ethiopia, where civil war has raged since November, tries to rekindle the patriotic fervour once inspired by the dam.
“The Biden administration’s new special envoy to the Horn of Africa Jeffrey Feltman has a trouble- shooting brief,” said Michael Hanna, a Middle East analyst from the New Yorkbased think tank The Century Foundation.
“The dam is high on his list because there is a growing sense in Washington that it’s becoming a real problem.
“But Ethiopians have created facts and they are not interested in talking to anyone, at least not now.”
Egyptian Prime Minister Mostafa Madbouly this week explained how vital the Nile water is to the mainly desert country, where more than 90 per cent of its 100 million people live on the banks of the river and in its delta.
“To Egypt, the question of water, and specifically the Nile, goes beyond all considerations and is tantamount to an existential issue linked to the life and very existence of Egyptians,” he said yesterday.
Egypt’s share of the Nile water – 55.5 billion cubic metres – remained unchanged for nearly a century while the country’s population grew, Mr Madbouly said.
Egypt’s share of water per capita is 600 cubic metres a year, or 400 cubic metres less than the 1,000 cubic metre threshold for water poverty.
The spiritual leader of Egypt’s Orthodox Christians gave his support to the government’s efforts to resolve the dispute.
In a message to mark the Coptic Easter holiday, Pope Tawadros II said: “We support the political leadership’s efforts to find a comprehensive and just solution of the water crisis – one that guarantees the divine right to life for the people of Egypt and their brothers in Sudan.”
Hany Raslan, a senior Africa analyst with Egypt’s Al Ahram Centre for Political and Strategic Studies, said some people do not understand the size of the problem that will threaten Egypt if its water share is cut.
“All that is needed is a surgical strike to stop the second filling, not destroying the dam, but time is not on Egypt’s side and the window for action is getting smaller,” he said.
Sudan temporarily threw diplomacy to the wind when its irrigation minister accused the African Union of bias “to some extent” towards Ethiopia in its year as a sponsor of negotiations between the three nations.
“The African Union did not bother to respond to Sudan’s complaint about the first filling,” Yasser Abbas said this week on Sudanese state television.
The first filling in July disrupted some of Sudan’s water treatment plants, and tens of thousands of homes had no running water for days.
Mr Abbas said lawyers were preparing cases against what he called the dam’s structural deficiencies and the environmental damage it caused with a view to suing the Ethiopian government and the Italian company that built the dam.
“It is tough to market the war option to the people of Sudan. There’s a large segment of the population that remains sympathetic towards Ethiopia,” said Rasha Awad, a Sudanese political analyst, alluding to cultural, social and economic ties.
“Some in the military are in favour of military action to make political gains at home, but the decision to go to war will not be made by the military alone.”
Ethiopia and Sudan are in a border dispute that has led to a build-up of troops on both sides and deadly skirmishes.
Recent comments by Ethiopian officials ranged from accusing unnamed parties of scheming against the country to branding longstanding Nile water-sharing agreements reached by Egypt, Sudan and former colonial power Britain as obsolete.
Ethiopian officials have tried to rekindle a sense of national purpose brought by the dam project before the war against separatist rebels in the Tigray region.
“It has become clear that there is a conspiracy to foil our efforts and undermine our very existence,” Ethiopian Water Minister Seleshi Bekele wrote on Twitter this week.
“We must all persevere and shoulder our responsibilities.”
Last weekend, Ethiopia’s National Security Council called on Ethiopians to rally behind their government.
“The top priority of citizens and the government is filling and finalising the building of the dam,” a statement carried by the state news agency said.
“We will realise the second filling of the dam by resisting both internal and external pressures.”