Nato allies’ heavy artillery trundles towards Donbas, but West’s advanced weaponry could prove decisive against invaders
Batteries of heavy artillery being sent to Ukraine may blunt the Russian offensive, but advanced weapons could be more effective against Moscow’s military might.
There are warnings that the vast array of weaponry entering the country from Nato powers could lead to confusion, with calls for a more coherent plan.
The US Secretary of Defence Lloyd Austin yesterday hosted a meeting of Nato defence ministers to discuss the co-ordination of arms deliveries.
Germany demonstrated that it was stepping up its delivery of heavy weapons by confirming that it was sending the Flakpanzer Gepard anti-aircraft system to Ukraine. The tracked weapon carries two 35mm cannon that can hit aircraft 5,500 metres away.
But for now, it is the artillery pieces along with thousands of shells from the US, the Netherlands, Poland, Britain and the Czech Republic that could turn the tide.
The Russians have long called artillery the “god of war” and by concentrating their firepower in Donbas they will attempt to remove Ukraine’s army from its well dug-in positions. The Ukrainians will target the Russian artillery batteries in agile counter-attacks using drones, radar and howitzers.
If they can get enough guns to the east in time, they may well make it impossible for the Russians to penetrate deep into Donbas.
It is relatively easy to train gunners on towed artillery pieces. The US is sending at least 90 M777 howitzers and 180,000 rounds. The gun, used in the Afghanistan and Iraq wars, can fire a 155mm shell 24 kilometres with a well-trained, eight-man crew able to fire two rounds a minute. The Dutch are understood to be sending about 20 Panzerhaubitze 2000s that could prove significant. The tracked guns can fire three shells in nine seconds and up to 20 rounds in two minutes.
They are highly accurate and have a 35km range that extends to 67km when firing rocket-booster shells.
“The key point Nato has to consider is, does it want to enable the Ukrainians to defeat Russia or just support them through to the end of their defeat by Russia?” said Sam Cranny-Evans of the Royal United Services Institute, a think tank in the UK. “Being able to blunt Russia’s artillery
advantage could prove particularly important. But there are concerns over the rate at which they’re chewing through ammunition at the moment. They would probably be looking at new gun barrels every week or every other week.”
The key to thwarting Russia will be the ability to spot their guns once fired and bring down accurate counter-battery fire.
The US is providing Ukraine with Firefinder radar that can rapidly detect and track incoming artillery, rocket and mortar fire, giving crews the precise point of origin.
The more Fire-finders the Ukraine can get, the easier it will be for their radar to track down Russian guns across the 400km front.
Ukrainian ingenuity has led to a rapid developments in using drones to spot Russian targets. Traditionally artillery spotting has been a specialised task using camouflaged soldiers to adjust and direct shelling.
But by using quadcopters or multi-copters – often bought commercially – the Ukrainians have at times brought down devastatingly accurate fire.
However, the greater distances and more open countryside of eastern Ukraine may call for bigger drones with longer endurance.
“More of those platforms would be very welcome, helping to ‘spot’ for Ukrainian artillery, but UAV-delivered [drone] munitions would also be a real force multiplier,” said Nick Brown, a weapons specialist at Jane’s Defence Weekly.
Nato could provide “smart” missiles specifically designed for small drones with “guided rocket and micro-munition options”, he said.
“Kamikaze drones” could prove most decisive against high-value Russian targets such as surface-to-air missile systems or radar sites.
The US has sent 400 Switchblade loitering drones but it has also been confirmed by the Pentagon that it will also supply 121 Phoenix Ghost drones that when launched “loiter” in the air, hunting for a target, then swoop to attack with their explosive warhead.
“These are potentially very useful,” said Justin Bronk of Rusi. “They can hunt down things from air defences to higher-end assets, because they’re small enough to be very difficult to track.”
Ukraine appears to have more tanks than it started the conflict with, having pressed abandoned Russian T-72s back into service.
Poland is understood to have sent 100 additional T-72s and might also supply explosive reactive armour that protects against anti-tank missiles.
The training time and maintenance required for modern Nato tanks such as the US Abrams or British Challenger 2, means Ukraine is likely to rely on the Soviet-era models for now.
However, Germany is providing tracked Marder infantry fighting vehicles, which will give good protection against artillery fire as well as possessing an effective 20mm cannon.
Ukraine’s armed forces could benefit greatly from non-lethal equipment such as good night-vision goggles.
“The Russian special forces have a lot of NVGs and one thing about night vision is that if one side has it and the other doesn’t then it is incredibly one-sided,” Mr Cranny-Evans said. “They take out an entire platoon with one sniper.”
Vital first aid supplies such as self-applying tourniquets are also in short supply.
It is likely that western powers are considering sending high-quality weapons that could create real difficulties for the Russians.
The Israeli-made Spike missile system – when mounted on a tracked vehicle called Exactor by the British – can strike targets with extreme precision more than 25km away. It was used to great effect against the Taliban in Helmand.
The US could supply Himars long-range artillery that can fire a salvo of six 1,670kg rockets up to 300km.
The Norwegian company Kongsberg might supply its potentially deadly Blue Spear anti-ship missiles with a range of 400km to counter Russia in the Black Sea.
Nato will seek other weapons systems that, while providing Ukraine with an extensive training and maintenance task, could also save it from conquest.