Sweden and Finland joining Nato would divide Europe into separate security zones, say analysts

Applications by Finland and Sweden to join Nato would prove “hugely symbolic” by dividing Europe into separate security zones, analysts have told The National.

Such a move would mean Russia would be confronted by hostile states stretching from the Arctic to the Black Sea.

Ed Arnold, an expert on European security at the Royal United Services Institute think tank in London, said the inclusion of the two Nordic countries would boost the alliance’s military strength significantly, because both have highly capable militaries and “very, very good soldiers”.

“This is a very political time for the alliance, showing that it’s still relevant, gaining new members who are strong in defence and security,” he said.

“This is not just a military decision. It’s a hugely symbolic political move.”

Mr Arnold said Moscow would be unlikely to retaliate in the short term because it is quickly losing troops and equipment in Ukraine and has withdrawn forces from the 1,340-kilometre Finland frontier to fight there.

Intelligence agencies have issued warnings that President Vladimir Putin may attempt cyber attacks on Stockholm and Helsinki.

Dr Alan Mendoza, director of the Henry Jackson Society think tank, said: “He’s clearly brought this upon himself, proving that he’s the greatest recruiting sergeant for Nato.

“Russia has repeatedly invaded non-Nato countries, so it stands to reason that, having seen the destruction in Ukraine, Finland and Sweden want to reverse their historic position of neutrality.”

Sweden’s ruling Social Democrats will decide on Saturday whether to overturn decades of opposition to Nato membership, the party said yesterday.

It is expected that on Thursday, Finland’s President Sauli Niinisto will call for his country to join the 30-nation alliance.

Such an announcement could spark a hectic couple of weeks in which the map of northern Europe’s security architecture would be redrawn.

“Russian behaviour shows how aggressive they are against their neighbours and how expansionist their mindset has become under Putin,” Rusi’s Mr Arnold said.

“The governments of both countries are exceptionally concerned as these are two quite vulnerable nations not covered by the Nato Article 5 security guarantee.”

If Sweden and Finland are successful, they will be covered by the Article 5 convention on collective defence.

Dr Robin Niblett, director of the UK think tank Chatham House, said the application confirmed that “we really do have a divided Europe”.

“It is a positive, Sweden [and] Finland joining, not a negative,” he told The National. “It just makes explicit what was previously existed”.

It would also confirm for Mr Putin the need to bring Belarus more firmly under his control and for a “hard border” across Ukraine that was bigger than the pre-invasion boundary, Dr Niblett said. He raised the “very worrying” threat of a “spillover” into Georgia, which Russia invaded in 2008.

Brig Ben Barry, of the International Institute for Strategic Studies think tank, said it was “another negative strategic development for Russia” in which “Mr Putin has essentially strengthened Nato”.

“This is a net advantage for European security and a net disadvantage for Russia, along with the many other consequences of their attack on Ukraine,” he said.

The Arctic Council, which largely governs the mineral-rich territory, will now have seven out of its eight members belonging to Nato.

“The eighth being Russia,” Mr Arnold said.

“The Arctic could be remilitarised in a way that it hasn’t been since the Cold War at a time when there’s more need for discussions on security and governance and co-operation on a range of issues.”

Dr Mendoza said the move was a warning to others considering invading sovereign states.

“For countries such as China, I think that it simply shows the costs of aggression and is a salutary lesson of the likelihood that if they move against another country there will be a reaction and it will lead to alliances,” he said.

Putin has clearly brought this upon himself, proving that he’s the greatest recruiting sergeant for Nato

DR ALAN MENDOZA

Director, Henry Jackson Society