Sweden ‘must join Nato to avoid stabbing neighbouring Finland in the back’
Sweden must join Nato because its armed forces are “too weak” to defend themselves from Russian attack, a Swedish former diplomat has said.
Jan Henningsson said the need for Sweden to sign up to the alliance was greater than previously considered because two decades of cuts had shrunk its military to close to a 10th of its post-Cold War size.
He suggested that if Sweden failed to sign up to the alliance this month, the country would risk “back-stabbing” its neighbour Finland by allowing Russia in through the back door.
Sweden enters a crucial and historic week with its parliament debating whether it should join Nato, in light of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
The proposal has led to a difficult moment for the country, which has been steadfastly neutral for more than 200 years, is resolutely opposed to nuclear weapons and whose population is divided over Nato.
But Mr Henningsson, 71, believes that with the army shrinking from 15 brigades in 1995 to two currently, it needs Nato membership urgently – given the unpredictability of Russian President Vladimir Putin.
“Our armed forces are not strong enough to defend our territory on their own,” he said, in his home city of Uppsala, north of the capital Stockholm.
“It’s become obvious that the dismantling of the Swedish defence forces has gone too far, that we would actually be at risk if we were attacked.”
When the Cold War ended, Sweden had an army of nearly 100,000 personnel, but by 2018 this had shrunk to 15,000.
Conscription was reintroduced to bring numbers back up, but it can field only 23,000 troops from a population of nearly 11 million.
This is despite the country having an excellent defence industry with world-leading hardware, including Saab’s Gripen fighter jets.
“This makes it even more important for Sweden to co-operate and to join forces with other countries in order to defend ourselves,” Mr Henningsson said. “The best guarantee for us would be Nato.”
If Sweden opted against joining, it could become the only Nordic country outside the alliance. Norway, Denmark and Iceland are Nato members; Finland’s president is expected tomorrow to announce his stance on accession to the bloc.
In Sweden, much depends on the ruling Social Democrats, who will announce an executive decision on Sunday. Their women’s and youth wings are largely against Nato. The ramifications of a “no” would be significant.
With fears of Russian interference in any referendum, the decision will be down to a simple majority in parliament, but for long-term stability it is thought that a broad majority would be politically necessary.
“If Sweden stays out of Nato it will open up a free area for Russia to back-stab not only Finland but also the Baltic states,” said Mr Henningsson, who was a senior adviser in the Ministry for Foreign Affairs’ Middle East and North Africa division. “The Russians could also take the strategically vital island of Gotland, and you can see from the geography that presents a great danger for Finland and the Baltic states.”
The garrison on the island, which is in the centre of the Baltic Sea, has recently been reinforced but Mr Henningsson believes it could not “hold Gotland for very long”.
Sweden and Finland were united for 600 years until 1809, and there remains a strong emotional bond between the countries – especially among the older generation whose relatives volunteered to fight for the Helsinki government when Russia invaded in 1940.
There is also an understanding that joining Nato would bolster the Baltic states, and help soothe shame over the post-Second World War extradition to the Soviet Union of Baltic volunteers in German forces, who faced almost certain death.
“We would not want to let down the Baltic people a second time,” Mr Henningsson said. Mr Putin’s invasion of Ukraine has “turned the tables completely” on Sweden and Finland’s neutrality, he said.
“The Russian Federation could previously be counted upon as being rational and sane, but what Finland has discovered with horror is that its neighbour suddenly turned out to be an aggressor with no compunction whatsoever,” said Mr Henningsson, who was director of the Swedish Institute in Alexandria, Egypt, from 2002 to 2008.
He suggested an initial downside of joining Nato would be only that Swedish officers would be sent to its headquarters in Brussels, “further depleting the resources of military staff in Sweden”.
There is hope, however, that its military will rebuild after the government has passed a bill to increase its defence spending by 40 per cent to $11 billion by 2025, reaching the Nato target of 2 per cent of gross domestic product.