The youthful winner of Thailand’s election has a tricky path to navigate
Thailand is not your typical democracy. Its elections are not the ultimate arbiter of power. Over the past century, the South-East Asian nation has experienced as many as 19 coups and 19 constitutions, thanks to constant intervention by its praetorian-style military against elected governments perceived to be threatening its constitutional order. That caused two of the latest coups, launched against the populist former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra in 2006, and against his sister Yingluck in 2014.
The upshot was an almost decade-long period of rule by pro-monarchy ex-generals: Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha, Deputy Prime Minister Prawit Wongsuwan, and Interior Minister Anupong Paochinda.
In this year’s elections, the youthful Move Forward (MF) party dared to challenge two pillars of the Thai political system and to great shock, it won.
The 42-year-old party leader, Pita Limjaroenrat, who observed Barack Obama’s candidacy in the 2008 US presidential election as a graduate student at Harvard, leveraged social media (particularly TikTok) as well as aggressive door-to-door campaigning amid the country’s emerging middle class and politically mobilised youth. Defying all forecasts, the MF won 151 of the 500 seats in Parliament, while the populist Pheu Thai (PT) party, led by the Thaksin family, managed only 141 seats. Meanwhile, the pro-military parties, divided between supporters of Mr Prayuth and Mr Prawit, underperformed. The incumbent’s United Thai Nation Party only won only 36 seats, effectively ending Mr Prayuth’s political career.
MF’s victory presents an opportunity to end what is referred to in Thailand as “wongchon ubat” (the “evil cycle”) of populism and militarism that has haunted Thai governance for the past two decades. But MF is under growing pressure to compromise on its most radical policy ideas in order to build a majority-based coalition and, crucially, avoid constitutional challenge, if not yet another coup. Should he succeed in becoming the next prime minister, Mr Pita is expected to not only usher in more liberal-progressive governance at home, but also embrace a more self-assured and proactive foreign policy.
It is hard to overstate the significance of MF’s electoral victory. For the past two decades, Thai politics has been a bipolar struggle for power, with former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra as the central figure. MF defied all expectations by not only outmanoeuvring the pro-military parties, but also the populist PT party, now led by Mr Thaksin’s 36-year-old daughter, Paetongtarn.
MF’s success, however, was a reflection of the country’s remarkable growth despite political instability. Over a generation, Thailand reduced its poverty rate from almost two thirds of the population to under 10 per cent, while GDP per capita has more than doubled from $3,000 to around $8,000 in just two decades. Thailand has earned, thanks to its motor-industry, the moniker of the “Detroit of Asia”.
With growing prosperity came an increasingly large, youthful and politically active middle class, which has demanded greater political liberalisation and good governance. MF’s electoral success can’t be understood without appreciating the appeal of its progressive platform to a large and energised voter base. In many ways, Thailand, like Malaysia, is the latest example of the relevance of countries where economic growth has strengthened popular mobilisation.
The path ahead, however, is tricky. To form the next government, MF, probably at the behest of its main coalition partner, PT, has signalled pragmatism. It has recalibrated its radical positions, regarding the monarchy and lese-majeste laws. This has increased chances that enough members of the traditionalist Senate would back an MF-led government, which still needs dozens of votes for a parliamentary majority.
Once in power, MF will need to focus on raising minimum wages and the question of same-sex unions, as well as on press freedom rather than on highly divisive issues such
The Move Forward Party is under pressure to compromise on its most radical ideas to build a majority-based coalition
as modernising the monarchy. On foreign policy, Thailand will probably embrace a more proactive approach, thanks to the country’s status as one of the founding members of the Association of South-East Asian Nations, its military alliance with the US and robust trade and investment ties with China.
Throughout the campaign, Mr Pita underscored his commitment to a more “independent” and “multi-aligned” foreign policy similar to neighbouring Singapore and other emerging powers like India, Indonesia and Turkey. He has promised to ensure Thailand will “not be part of the Chinese umbrella or the American umbrella”, but instead actively pursue new trade and investment deals with several powers.
At the same time, Thailand could take a stronger stance on conflicts, including a more critical one towards the junta in Myanmar.
It’s not clear whether MF will form the next government, but should it bring together a sustainable coalition, its youthful leader will have to navigate old challenges in building a new Thailand.