WHERE DO REPUBLICAN HOPEFULS STAND ON US MIDDLE EAST POLICY?
▶ Experts consider what importance region will have as primary campaign gathers momentum
Ron DeSantis, the man thought to pose the biggest threat to Donald Trump as he seeks the Republican nomination for president, has officially entered the 2024 race.
The field is quickly growing more crowded, with Senator Tim Scott announcing his candidacy on Monday, two days ahead of Mr DeSantis.
They joined former president Mr Trump, who announced his bid for a return to the White House last November.
Other contenders include Mr Trump’s former ambassador to the UN Nikki Haley, while former vice president Mike Pence is widely expected to run.
Traditionally, US elections centre on “kitchen table” domestic policy issues – such as taxes, health and education.
But some experts say foreign policy will play a more prominent role in 2024.
Victoria Coates, senior research fellow at the Washington-based Heritage Foundation’s Margaret Thatcher Centre for Freedom think tank, said the prevalence of national security issues will make for an “unusual race”.
A key issue is energy, an area in which Ms Coates believes “there is real room for vision” from Republican candidates on Middle East foreign policy.
“Anyone who is serious about energy policy realises they have to be serious about the Middle East,” she told The National.
“The engagement we traditionally would have sought from the Gulf, and from the region generally, is increased energy supply. That’s not our goal now. We’re one of the big three along with Saudi Arabia and Russia.
“So, it’s not simply a question of asking for more barrels per day to keep prices under control, which appears to be the approach of [the President Joe] Biden administration.
“There’s a real potential for a more visionary candidate who understands the strengths in the Gulf.”
Brian Katulis, senior fellow and vice president of policy at the Middle East Institute think tank, also in Washington, said an energy debate would be determined by fuel prices.
“If consumers see inflation as a big problem heading into next year’s polls and gas prices as being a challenge, then you might see some Republican candidates trying to blame Biden for not having stable, smooth relations with some of these [Middle East] countries,” Mr Katulis told The National.
But even that would rank low with the electorate, he said.
“If a Republicans came out and basically said we should embrace the region a bit more, and we would have lower oil prices, it may not be all that compelling to have an argument for people, because they don’t understand the dynamics of global energy markets,” said Mr Katulis.
US outlet Politico, citing sources close to Mr DeSantis, said he “is still soaking in information” on national security issues.
Mr Katulis said Mr DeSantis’s foreign policy appears “confusing”– like that of Mr Trump.
“It’s hard to see any clear division – or even a clear plan – coming from the Republican Party, whether it’s Trump or DeSantis, on the Middle East,” he said.
But there are signals from Mr DeSantis, who recently visited
Israel. Mr Katulis said a speech by the Florida governor in Jerusalem showed he is “pro-Israel from a very right-wing perspective”, despite polls showing Americans are pivoting away from those views.
Having served in Iraq during his time as a navy lawyer, Mr DeSantis has also been a sharp critic of Iran, advocating support for the US relationship with its Kurdish allies.
While serving as a congressman in 2017, Mr DeSantis demanded that the US government “stand by the Kurds” to build strength against Tehran.
Mr Trump made the decision in 2019 to redeploy US forces from the Syrian-Turkish border – a move his critics characterised as “a shameful betrayal” of America’s Kurdish partners in the fight against ISIS.
While Mr Katulis said this was typical of “mixed signals” from Mr Trump, Ms Coates believed it “demonstrated that it is possible to engage with the region, but not necessarily promote an additional military adventure”.
She predicts the foreign policy issue that will dominate the Republican primary will be China – where relative cohesion exists across the party.
Ms Coates said Republicans running for president would take a tougher, “less conciliatory” stance towards Beijing, and would prioritise more engagement in the Middle East.
But Mr Katulis said most US voters have “moved on” from Middle East issues.
“Ordinary American voters are pretty happy that we’ve sort of winnowed down our presence in the region,” he said.