Intelligence sharing boosts defences as Israel considers its response to Iran
Israel is set to benefit from a much higher level of intelligence sharing from the US, something that proved vital to thwarting Iran’s attack on Saturday.
“That’s super important when it comes to the intelligence side, as the US has an regional warning system that could kick in for the Israelis,” said Megan Sutcliffe, an Iran analyst at Sibylline intelligence company in London.
Intelligence was most likely to have been gathered through signal intercepts which provided Israel with warning of Iranian intentions.
“This [situation] calls for cool heads, as Israel has many ways it can launch an operation against Iran when it suits Israel,” said Richard Pater of the Bicom think tank in Jerusalem. “Iran fully understands that it has overstepped the mark big time and, critically, that something is coming to them sooner rather than later.”
Iranian proxies in Lebanon and Syria appear to be first in line for Israeli retaliation, he said, and Iraqi militias could also become targets.
Israel also has the option of striking Iran itself, although in a covert manner.
Shared intelligence meant that Britain was able to send more jets to its airbase in Cyprus and, with US, French and Jordanian warplanes, shot down the waves of Iranian kamikaze drones and cruise missiles sent against Israel.
Intelligence sources claimed that up to half of the estimated 120 ballistic missiles fired towards Israel by Iran failed to make it to their targets.
The Israeli air defences that brought down all but one per cent of the incoming attack are understood to have been closely watched by Gulf states.
While Israel’s Iron Dome system is designed for short range attacks, its Arrow-3 system, alongside David’s Sling, is designed specifically for “exo-atmospheric” assaults.
It is unknown how many Arrow-3 missiles, which can travel at speeds in excess of Mach 9, were fired, but a number of them reached an altitude of 150km, where they intercepted Iran’s ballistic missiles.
In terms of Israeli response, analysts have ruled out an all-out strike on Iran despite demands by right-wingers in Israel’s war cabinet.
Fighting on three fronts – in Gaza, southern Lebanon and the occupied West Bank – has stretched Israeli military resources and a sustained assault on Iran would prove extremely difficult.
The US has also made it clear that it would not support a direct attack on Iran, and analysts believe Israel wants to retain the newfound goodwill from its allies.
While Israel has a highly advanced bombing capability led by F-35s and F-15s, the required campaign would need many sorties to complete, with a high chance of planes being shot down by Iran’s air defences.
During the cabinet meeting yesterday, Israeli ministers would have discussed their response in light of US President Joe Biden’s insistence that they refrain from an assault on Iran. “What is clear is that they [Israel] are going to launch major strikes against the proxy forces that were involved,” an Israeli security source told The National.
Attacks against Hezbollah in southern Lebanon will intensify, as well as those against Syria, the source said.
Strikes on proxies in Iraq cannot be ruled out, although the Houthi rebels in Yemen are likely to be ignored.
“Attacking Iran is not something that I think the state of Israel can handle right now,” said Tal Hagin, an intelligence analyst based in Tel Aviv.
There is a strong likelihood that Israel will focus on covert attacks, possibly with more assassinations and cyber warfare against Iran, he added.
“The narrative is that this is enough for Iran, that they struck Israel and it is probably the wiser strategy for Israel to keep the United States’ support more than anything else,” said Prof Yossi Mekelberg of the Chatham House think tank.
He said that the US would be urging “let’s actually leave it open for not retaliating” because the Iran attack was retaliation for the Israeli bombing of its embassy in Damascus, contrary to the 1961 Vienna Convention on Diplomatic Relations and the 1963 Convention on Consular Relations.
The attack killed two senior Iranian military figures.
“Goodwill is now strong among Israel’s allies, both in the region and internationally, which is why I would be surprised if Israel retaliates [against Iran] directly,” said Ms Sutcliffe.
“They will not be willing to throw that goodwill away when we’re at such a crucial point in US-Israeli relations.”
Analysts say there are many good military reasons for Israel to stay its hand and not hit out at Iran in retaliation