‘New deterrence policy’ in effect after Iran’s attack on Israel

A senior Iraqi security official said that Iran’s direct attack on Israel at the weekend created a “new deterrence policy” in the region.

But further escalation of the conflict will undermine stability in the Middle East, Iraqi National Security Adviser Qasim Al Araji told The National at the two-day Sulaimani Forum, in the northern Iraqi city of Sulaymaniyah.

Baghdad is working with other “influential” countries in an effort to de-escalate tension, he added, after Iran launched more than 300 drones and missiles at Israel on Saturday.

Israeli and allied forces intercepted 99 per cent of the projectiles.

The strike was carried out in response to Israel’s bombardment of the Iranian embassy in Damascus on April 1.

The Iranian attack established “a new map and a policy of deterrence in the region”, Mr Al Araji said.

He said the attack was “unprecedented and historic and at the same time disciplined, because it didn’t target economic or civilian institutions that may escalate the situation”.

“Iran wanted to send a message that it has the capability to respond, and I think Israel got the message,” he added.

On Tuesday, sources told The National that Tehran was preparing to counter an Israeli retaliation, possibly within its borders, and had determined a specific level of Israeli response that would not necessitate a severe reaction.

Mr Al Araji said that, based on intelligence and analysis, Israel is more likely to strike targets outside Iran. However, he added, “the new escalation will undermine the stability in the entire region”.

Escalating tension between Iran and Israel has raised international concern over the possibility of a wider conflict that could have devastating consequences for millions of people in the region, as well as far-reaching implications for

global energy markets and the fight against extremism.

“The Iranian-Israeli conflict has continued, and there have been many attacks by Israel against Iranian sites that led to the martyrdom of senior military figures,” Mr Al Araji said.

“But the latest attack against the Iranian consulate in Syria has for sure crossed red lines and led to the response … [Iran] has the right to respond as self-defence.”

After the Israel-Gaza war broke out on October 7, Iranbacked militias in Iraq and Syria began carrying out attacks against US troops as part of a co-ordinated operation, demanding an immediate ceasefire in the Palestinian enclave governed by their ally Hamas.

However, the militias’ last attack against US troops was on February 4. Since then, the strikes have been suspended under an “unannounced truce” involving the Iranian and Iraqi governments, sources told The National last month.

The catalyst for the truce was an attack in late January that killed three US soldiers at a base in Jordan, near the border with Syria, and subsequent US retaliatory strikes against militia targets.

Mr Al Araji said Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia Al Sudani, who is on a week-long visit to Washington, is holding talks with “influential” countries in the region, including Saudi Arabia and Iran, in a push for de-escalation.

On Tuesday, Mr Al Sudani said he did not want Iraq to be caught up in any escalation in the Middle East, after Iran’s missiles crossed through Iraqi airspace on the way to Israel.

“Our intention is not to be involved in this escalation that has a great influence on our country and the security and the stability of our country,” Mr Al Sudani said, adding that the war in Gaza was the root cause of the tension.

“Without a just resolution, there are going to be groups who believe they have a just cause to fight,” he said.